Celsius 1.5: Reflections on the ICJ’s “Primary Temperature Goal” Under The Paris Agreement

Chinese Journal of International Law. 2026. Vol. 25. No. 3. P. 1–18.

Rovnov Y.

The International Court of Justice’s finding that 1.5°C has become the primary temperature goal under the Paris Agreement and therefore a factor that defines the content of States parties’ obligations is significant in a number of ways. Formally confined to the four corners of the Paris Agreement, it is poised to achieve a much broader reach by setting the universal normative benchmark for legal relations between and among public and private entities in respect of climate change. The finding was made notwithstanding the fact that, by the Court’s own admission, the 1.5°C threshold is about to be crossed, which suggests that the ‘primary temperature goal’ is a priori unattainable. This essay analyses the Court’s concise reasoning behind the finding and argues that it lacks sufficient textual basis, while the overambitiousness of the formalized 1.5°C target may prove to be an inhibitor, instead of a catalyst, of global mitigation efforts.

Keywords: изменение климата, climate change, Международный суд ООН, консультативное заключение, Парижское соглашение, advisory opinion, Paris Agreement, ICJ, primary temperature goal, основная температурная цель

Publication based on the results of: International protection of economic rights in the context of sanctions (2025)