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Стратегический форсайт ТНК в условиях глобальной неопределенности
Facing the growing uncertainty of the current global business environment leading multinationals are increasingly turning to strategic foresight (SF) which becomes the integral component of their corporate strategic management systems. The distinctive feature of SF is related to the recognition of multiple futures and the abilities of major market players to influence the occurrence of one or another future option. This approach fits perfectly into the logic of strategic behavior of major MNCs dominating many global industry markets. Recent empirical research has shown that SF instruments are regularly used by the vast majority of the largest multinationals. However, the maturity levels of their corporate foresight functions vary greatly. The leading MNCs in this area stand out for their higher financial performance and demonstrate superior readiness for change, adaptability and proactive approach to innovation. The analysis revealed a number of best practices characteristic of the SF leaders. One of these relates to a systematic scanning of business environment across three time horizons (short-term, mid-term and long-term) allowing to pick up barely noticeable weak signals of future changes and simultaneously to maintain due focus on the current operations. Another best practice consists in combining quantitative and qualitative information, including unstructured data, coming from various sources and being processed by means of latest digital technologies, notably big data and AI instruments. The third distinctive best-practice element is specific approach to scenario planning. Leading MNCs develop at least 4-5 scenarios of the future necessarily including strategic surprises which could bring fundamental changes in competitive landscape. The fourth best practice of multinational SF leaders is connected with their clearly visible orientation to take advantage of the future opportunities. While most companies use their foresight function predominantly as an early warning system on future risk identification, leading MNCs moved further. They guide foresight activities above all to search and seize new opportunities for business.