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Экономический аспект борьбы за независимость Шотландии
Scotland’s independence will have a detrimental effect on its economy. After the split from the UK, the Scottish Government will have to implement austerity policies in order to achieve socioeconomic stability in the country. These measures will include reduction in social payments, cancelation of infrastructure projects, introduction of expenditure limits on green energy initiatives. Overall, austerity regime will undercut economic growth in Scotland. The Scottish National Party (SNP) not only fights for independence by political means, but also develops a complex system of arguments for economic reform. The party’s views on the main aspects of the socioeconomic structure of an independent Scotland are best reflected in the programme titled “Building a New Scotland”. It offers an optimistic view of the prospects for the autonomous development of the Scottish economy. But the present study shows that the SNP’s arguments are unfounded. Trade policy uncertainty and budgetary problems are the main factors that will create problems for the country’s reform efforts. Firstly, Scottish government will have to find a way to solve the budget deficit problem. The study shows that the possibilities of increasing taxation have been exhausted. Moreover, it will be extremely difficult to significantly reduce public expenditure due to the steady growth of social spending. Thus, in the foreseeable future, the region will not have the instruments to balance expenditure and revenue. Secondly, an independent Scotland will find it difficult to identify opportunities for trade expansion. The only potentially available market is the EU. But even if Scotland joins the European single market, the positive effect of this decision will only compensate for the negative effect of reducing trade with the UK, without bringing tangible additional benefits to the Scottish economy. Hence, neither budgetary nor trade factors will be able to provide impetus for the rapid development of the Scottish economy. After achieving sovereignty, the country will enter a long period of uncertainty. Although Scotland has the potential to exist independently and will be able to survive economically as sovereign state, there is no reason to believe that independence will improve the efficiency of the Scottish economic system and bring about a higher quality of life for its people.