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Край, которого нет, или Неверленд
The armed confrontation between the Russian Federation and the collective West requires focusing its attention and resources on Ukraine. Under extreme circumstances, it is more difficult for Russia to expand or even maintain its position in other neighboring countries.
Moscow has lost its position as the main mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Its peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh, agreed upon in 2020 for five years with the possibility of extension, was terminated early as a result of Baku's military operation to fully recapture the now former Armenian enclave. Armenia, under the government of Nikol Pashinyan, is moving closer to the US and the EU, effectively ending its participation in the CSTO and distancing itself from Moscow. In Abkhazia, a stone's throw from the "Black Sea capital of Russia," a severe political crisis erupted in November 2024, forcing Moscow to allow local forces (almost entirely Russian citizens) to freely sort out their differences. Needless to say, Abkhazia is completely dependent on Russia financially and militarily.
Less visible (but potentially more dangerous) trends are emerging in Central Asia. The terrorists who perpetrated the tragedy at Crocus City Hall in March 2024 can be traced back to extremist organizations operating in Tajikistan. The region is clearly rewriting history in a way that is unfavorable to Russia. The material interests of the ruling and power elites in neighboring countries are closely tied to the West, which has become a breeding ground for the next generation of leaders.
The immediate strategic goal of the United States and its allies is essentially instrumental: by opening a "second front" alongside Ukraine, they are pinning down Russia's forces along its borders with the CIS countries. Other objectives are related to their own resource needs, as well as plans for geopolitical and ideological expansion to strengthen their shaky global hegemony. The South Caucasus and Central Asia are attracting particular attention.
Russia views its neighboring countries as part of the Eurasian civilizational space, a space for ensuring common security, economic integration, and cooperation.