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Modeling COVID-19 response in Cuba: a hybrid approach combining agent-based modeling and time series analysis
Population Health Metrics. 2025. Vol. 23. Article 71.
The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted vulnerable populations, such as low-income households, exacerbating existing health and economic challenges. In Cuba, the crisis exposed the effects of long-standing economic difficulties, worsened by sanctions, but the country’s robust public health system and independent vaccine development enabled an effective response. This study addresses the gap in understanding how socio- economic factors and individual behaviors interact to influence disease spread. It proposes a hybrid, efficient, and parsimonious model combining ABM (Agent-Based Modeling) and ARIMAX (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables) time series analysis to forecast COVID-19 cases, offering valuable insights for policymakers to tailor interventions and enhance crisis management.
Language:
English
Lola I. S., Asoskov D., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Центр конъюнктурных исследований Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ (ЦКИ ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ) представляет аналитический дайджест с оперативными показателями развития российско-китайских торгово-экономических отношений по итогам II квартала 2026 года.Представлен анализ динамики и структуры экспорта и импорта, средних цен и условий торговли, интенсивности, взаимозависимости и концентрации торговли по товарам и странам, сравнительных преимуществ и ...
Added: October 27, 2026
Lola I. S., Asoskov D., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Центр конъюнктурных исследований Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ представляет информационный обзор, подготовленный в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ по теме «Оценка делового климата в условиях формирования новой модели экономического роста на базе результатов конъюнктурных обследований», характеризующий отдельные деловые тенденции, сложившиеся в отрасли информационных технологий (ИТ-отрасль) в 2025 г.
Работа базируется на результатах ...
Added: October 27, 2026
Костюнина С. Б., Современная мировая экономика 2026 Т. 4 № 1 С. 26–49
The energy transition has the potential to become an economic revolution. For countries that depend on hydrocarbon imports, the transition to low-carbon technologies has become not only a factor in energy supply, energy security, economic growth, and environmental protection, but also a factor influencing global markets. To examine this influence and assess the prospects for ...
Added: October 27, 2026
Starostin A., Veselova A., International Journal of Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Technology 2026 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 1–28
This article challenges the prevailing view that customer experience in online retail is shaped primarily at the digital interface. Instead, the authors investigate whether physical, interpersonal service encounters at third-party pickup points carry greater weight. Using the partial least squares structural equation modeling to evaluate 18,023 marketplace customers, they analyzed five sequential journey stages to ...
Added: October 24, 2026
М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
В сборнике представлены отобранные оргкомитетом труды участников 17-й Международной научно-практической конференции студентов и аспирантов «Статистические методы анализа экономики и общества» из России, Армении, Беларуси и Китая, представляющих 27 вузов из 16 городов: Москва, Владивосток, Ереван, Йошкар-Ола, Минск, Новосибирск, Оренбург, Ростов-на-Дону, Санкт-Петербург, Саранск, Саратов, Севастополь, Уфа, Шахты, Шэньчжэнь, Электросталь.
Исследования посвящены вопросам статистической методологии, применению математико-статистических и ...
Added: October 21, 2026
Москвитин О. А., Финансовые рынки и банки 2026 № 9 С. 730–732
Статья посвящена проблеме применения специальных финансово-экономических знаний при рассмотрении дел о картельных соглашениях. Автор исходит из того, что российская правоприменительная практика по делам о картелях исторически опирается преимущественно на поведенческие и цифровые «следы» сговора, тогда как экономический анализ зачастую играет вспомогательную роль. На основе анализа отечественного и зарубежного опыта обосновывается тезис о необходимости разграничения двух ...
Added: October 21, 2026
Gazman V. D., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика 2026 Т. 61 № 4 С. 145–162
This article examines the theoretical and practical dimensions of carbon taxation. It assesses the extent to which the existing tax mechanism regulates CO2 emissions and whether tax revenues cover the damage caused by those emissions. The advantages and disadvantages of emissions trading systems and carbon taxes are analyzed. The article reviews the scholarly debate involving ...
Added: October 21, 2026
Kulagina E., Slykhova K., Lechenko E. et al., BRICS Journal of Economics 2026 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 1–46
This study explores the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and entrepreneurial intention (EI) among university students in Russia, where entrepreneurial engagement remains relatively low. It emphasizes the role of internal psychological drivers, such as SWB, willingness to take risks and entrepreneurial self-efficacy, rather than focusing solely on external factors. Drawing on the Theory of Planned ...
Added: October 20, 2026
Ksenia V. Rozhkova, Sergey Yu. Roshchin, Natalya K. Yemelina, Population and Economics 2026 Vol. 10 No. 3 P. 61–81
Increasing female representation in technical majors, traditionally associated with high earnings, is recognised as a mechanism for promoting gender equality in the labour market. However, if women quit STEM soon after graduation, increasing their proportion in relevant disciplines will not help reduce the gender wage gap. This paper provides new evidence of the ‘leaky pipeline’ ...
Added: October 19, 2026
Lola I. S., Ostapkovich G. V., Asoskov D. et al., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Аналитический обзор деловых тенденций в сфере услуг в III квартале 2026 г. подготовлен Центром конъюнктурных исследований ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ. В его основу положены ежеквартальные конъюнктурные опросы руководителей организаций сферы услуг, проводимые Федеральной службой государственной статистики (Росстат). Это распространенный и действенный в международной практике статистических служб и исследовательских организаций источник информации о тенденциях циклического характера, а также метод аппроксимации ...
Added: October 19, 2026
Катаев М. В., Molodchik M., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2026 Т. 23 № 3 С. 719–740
В данном исследовании рассматривается связь между интеллектуальным капиталом компаний и их интернационализацией в условиях внешних шоков. В отличие от предыдущих работ, как правило, рассматривающих взаимосвязь интеллектуального капитала и интернационализации в стабильной экономике, в исследовании развиваются предположения о неоднородном влиянии шоков на компоненты интеллектуального капитала и, соответственно, различном модерационном эффекте шоков на трансформацию интеллектуального капитала в экспортную ...
Added: October 17, 2026
Бородаева В. А., Вопросы экономики 2026 № 10 С. 5–27
The paper offers a new perspective on the limit of government debt. It surveys the broad historical picture of the dynamics and character of government debt in the leading economies: the ratios of debt and debt service to GDP have risen to levels close to their half-century highs. In the regime that has taken shape ...
Added: October 16, 2026
Mozias P., Социальные и гуманитарные науки. Отечественная и зарубежная литература. Серия 9: Востоковедение и африканистика 2026 № 3 С. 197–223
Abstract. Long-standing differences in development levels between China’s coastal and inland provinces intensified during the 1980s–1990s, at the early stages of market reforms. In response, from the late 1990s the Сentral government began implementing major development initiatives such as the “Go West”, the “Revitalization of the Northeast,” and the “Rise of Central China,” while in ...
Added: October 15, 2026
Sakevich V. I., Демографическое обозрение 2026 Т. 13 № 3 С. 4–28
The article analyzes modern legislation regarding artificial termination of pregnancy in countries around the world. Depending on the grounds on which abortion is permitted, five groups of countries are distinguished. Estimates have shown that about 60% of women of reproductive age live in countries with liberal legislation, where abortion is allowed at the request of ...
Added: October 15, 2026
Lungu M. M., Davitadze A., Frontiers in Public Health 2026 Vol. 14 Article 1919768
Malaria control in Malawi relies primarily on long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), but transmission remains heterogeneous across districts. Previous research indicates that community-based environmental management strategies, such as routine drainage maintenance, vegetation removal, and effective household waste disposal, may reduce environmental conditions conducive to malaria vector proliferation. This study investigated the ...
Added: October 15, 2026
Lukinskiy V., Lukinsky V., Sokolov B. et al., Annual Reviews in Control 2026 No. 62 P. 1–15
Enterprises planning material requirements must account for multiple sources of uncertainty. Considering the impact of yield uncertainty is of prime importance to decision-makers. To mitigate the effects of random yield on the continuity of manufacturing operations, we propose establishing a reserve stock to prevent shortages due to defective items within safety stock levels. If no ...
Added: October 14, 2026
Vukovic N., Krivokhizhin O., Антонова В. Д., АПК: Экономика, управление 2026 № 8 С. 89–95
One of the key roles is given to the agro-industrial complex in the global agenda of sustainable development. The leaders of the sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex identify the main trends and set standards for responsible business conduct in the industry. This article is devoted to the analysis of the leaders of responsible business ...
Added: October 14, 2026
Kim J., Lee K., Industrial and Corporate Change 2026 Vol. 35 No. 5 P. 1122–1152
This study represents one of the first attempts to develop a global typology of regional innovation systems (RIS) across both advanced and catching-up economies, identifying distinct pathways for regional technological catch-up. Utilizing United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patent citation data from 33 regions worldwide over the period 2000–2017, we construct several RIS indicators, ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Xu S., Yu H., Ren T. et al., Journal of Knowledge Management 2025 Vol. 29 No. 10 P. 3410–3436
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the role of knowledge management in enhancing urban innovation within the context of smart cities, with a particular emphasis on the function of future communities as foundational units of knowledge-driven development. It aims to distinguish the respective contributions of knowledge acquisition and knowledge sharing as input mechanisms, while examining the ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Bessonova E., Popova S., Fedulova M., Emerging Markets Review 2026 Vol. 75 Article 101564
To mitigate the shocks caused by the pandemic-related restrictions, many governments implemented extensive support measures for companies facing sharp declines in revenues. In Russia, loan guarantee programmes allowed many firms to apply for loans during the pandemic. As a result, the number of small loans soared. Participation in the loan guarantee programmes helped firms in ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Артёменко В. Г., Проблемы прогнозирования 2026 № 1 С. 144–156
The article analyzes the adaptation of the ICT specialist labor market in Russia in the context of technological development and external shocks in the first half of the 2020s. Against the backdrop of a general increase in the number of ICT specialists in Russia, external shocks changed the balance of supply and demand in the labor market. In ...
Added: September 29, 2026
ARUTYUNOV G. P., TARLOVSKAYA E. I., POLYAKOV D. S. et al., Heliyon 2024 Vol. 10 No. 7 Article e28892
The aim of this study is to investigate the course of the acute period of COVID-19 and devise a prognostic scale for patients hospitalized.
Materials and methods
The ACTIV registry encompassed both male and female patients aged 18 years and above, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and subsequently hospitalized. Between June 2020 and March 2021, a total ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Burkova V., Butovskaya M., , in: Principles and Forms of Sociocultural Organization: Historical Contexts of Interaction.: L., NY: Anthem Press, 2026. Ch. 12 P. 237–250.
Cross-cultural psychology and anthropology have many ways of studying human cultures in all their diversity. There are multiple theories of cultural dimensions which provide a foundation for understanding how a culture of a given society influences individual values within it and how these values shape individual behavior. The chapter presents several examples of such classifications ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Васильчук М. С., Шаньков Ф. М., Chumakova M. et al., Psychology. Journal of the Higher School of Economics 2021 Vol. 18 No. 2 P. 247–258
The 2019 Coronavirus disease outbreak leads to negative psychological outcomes not only for healthcare workers and patients, but also for the general public. S. Hobfoll’s Conservation of Resources theory is one of the most applicable models for conceptualizing and evaluating natural and social catastrophes and their impact. A web-based screening has been conducted at the ...
Added: June 30, 2026