Intertemporal Three-Product General Equilibrium Model of Russian Economy
Seasonality and cyclicity - are two influential factors that affect dynamics of macroeconomic indicators both during the year and longer periods of time. In this article are discussed methodological questions that arise during seasonal decomposition of the GDP by factors for the year when balance aggregate and factors ratio is constant. Economic cycles mechanisms origin and their identification questions based on the combination of classical methods of spectral analysis and historic approach. Presented is the fact that along with more regular cycles such as investment and Kondratiev wave, influence of shocks (such as «oil prices crises») appear so called causal cycles that lead to a serious change in technological base of production. Particular importance (emphasis is placed on ) a new technological wave which is expected to strike the world in 2020 th and those goal set before the Russia. This research is done on the basis of world and Russian (national) statistics.
The Strategic Market Game (SMG) is the general equilibrium mechanism of strategic reallocation of resources. It was suggested by Shapley and Shubik in a series of papers in the 70s and it is one of the fundamentals of contemporary monetary macroeconomics with endogenous demand for money. This survey highlights features of the SMG and some of the most important current applications of SMGs, especially for monetary macroeconomic analysis.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.