Динамика численности населения арктических городов России и Канады с середины ХХ в.

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 5: География. 2025. Т. 80. № 5. С. 102–118.

Zamyatina N., Никитин Б. В., Polozun A.

The paper addresses the problem of universalizing the characteristics of Arctic cities and questions the possibility of identifying uniform patterns in their demographic dynamics. The analysis is based on a comparison of census data for more than 100 cities in Russia and Canada since the mid-20th century. The authors demonstrate that the official definition of the Arctic Zone as an administrative category does not reflect the real differences between cities. The authors show that the official definition of the Arctic zone as a management category does not reflect the real differences between cities because there are radically different development trajectories within the boundaries of both the modern Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and the North of Canada. One of the trajectories is analyzed in detail using the example of the town of Norilsk (the modern Central District of the town of Norilsk). This is a frontier type of population dynamics: the decrease in population numbers is caused not so much by the outflow of population as by a decline in incoming migration while an overall high migration turnover is constant. The findings emphasize the need to move away from standardized planning scenarios and to consider the diversity of local conditions in managing the development of Arctic territories.

Keywords: Far North, Крайний Север, городское сжатие, shrinking city, арктическая урбанизация, Arctic urbanization, frontier dynamic of population change, фронтирная динамика численности населения

Publication based on the results of: Динамическая урбанистика: сравнительный анализ городов России и Китая с быстро меняющейся численностью населения (2027)