Влияние личных факторов на изменение стратегических намерений малых предпринимателей в условиях экзогенных шоков: анализ лонгитюдных данных

Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены. 2025. № 4. С. 175–201.

Pashkov S., Chepurenko A., Егорова А. И.

This article analyzes the impact of changes in motivation and the evaluation of business conditions on the strategic intentions of small business owners in the context of external shocks. The empirical basis of the study is drawn from the FOM Small Business Longitudinal Survey (initiated in 2021, initial N = 768 individuals). The analytical methodology employs generalized estimating equations (GEE) to fully account for the effects of panel data.

The study reveals that for the majority of respondents, motivation remains stable, although their assessments of the external environment and business performance exhibit slight variability. Changes in motivation, whether from opportunity to necessity or vice versa, are not necessarily driven by changes in current business income but are strongly associated with the evaluation of the overall economic situation. A deterioration in the economic environment may lead to a shift in motivation from opportunity to necessity, whereas improvements can trigger a shift from necessity to opportunity motivation. Changes in motivation in both directions influence entrepreneurs’ strategic intentions, with a significantly stronger effect observed for negative transitions (from opportunity to necessity motivation). An increase in business income has a significant positive effect on changes in entrepreneurs’ strategic intentions, while a decline in income exerts a significant negative effect.

This study is the first to establish a link between changes in business owners’ strategic intentions and their assessments of changing business conditions, current income levels, and owners’ education.]

Keywords: мотивация, стратегия, малое предпринимательство, strategy, motivation, лонгитюд, longitude, external shocks, внешние шоки, small entrepreneurship

Publication based on the results of: The Impact of External Shocks and Restrictions on the Strategies of Economic Agents in the Context of the New Reality (2025)