ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫЕ РЕВОЛЮЦИИ И ЭВОЛЮЦИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ САНКЦИЙ

Экономическая наука современной России. 2025. Т. 28. № 2. С. 5–13.

Gurkov I. B., Filinov N., Saidov Z.

This research aims to explore the connection between the evolution of economic sanctions and industrial revolutions.
Employing a phenomenon- based research approach and a realist historical perspective, this paper investigates the dynamics and
mechanisms underpinning the increasing number and sophistication of sanctions throughout successive industrial revolutions.
We define economic sanctions as commercial and/or financial penalties applied by states or organizations against foreign states,
public or private organizations, groups, or individuals. Our main proposition is: the number and character of sanctions correlate
with industrial revolutions – radical transformations in technological systems and civil society. We argue that the evolution of
sanctions from supplements to substitutes for warfare is linked to two major factors: 1) the shifting motives behind sanctions,
particularly the increasing emphasis on maintaining national competitiveness; 2) the transformation in sanction techniques – from
total trade and financial embargoes during Industrial Revolutions 1.0 and 2.0 to targeted “smart sanctions” focusing on critical
and vulnerable entities during Industrial Revolution 3.0. Both factors are strongly related with the development of technological
systems in developed countries, that also play the major role as sanctioning countries. We anticipate that these trends toward more
sophisticated and targeted sanctions will intensify during the forthcoming Industrial Revolutions 4.0 and 5.0, even as the overall
frequency of situations requiring sanctions is expected to decline.

Keywords: международные корпорации, технологические революции, экономические санкции, типология санкций, социо-экономическое прогнозирование