The Alternative Monetary Rule: Evidence from Russia

Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences.. 2025. Vol. 18. No. 4. P. 814–825.

Gospodarchuk G., Aistov A., Zotov A.

The economic agents need to have a thorough understanding of the rules of decision making regarding the key rate in order to make effective financial decisions. The goal of the study was to identify the rules used by the Bank of Russia to make decisions regarding short-term key-rate adjustments. As a result, we propose a multinomial logit model that allows us to predict the probability of a change in the key rate depending on the behavior of the equilibrium level of one-day rates of the interbank lending market in the period between the previous and the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, as well as a linear model that allows us to predict the magnitude of the change in the key rate. Both models have been developed for the Russian money market. The information for the models was sourced from the data on one-day rates of the Russian interbank market MIACR and data on the key rate for the period of 2013–2022. The novelty of the study lies in clarifying the relationship between the key rate and money market interest rates. It has been discovered that the key-rate changes following the change in the equilibrium values of the one-day rates of the interbank lending market.

Keywords: монетарная политика, monetary policy, monetary rule, монетарное правило, ключевая ставка, key rate, key-rate forecasting, прогноз ключевой ставки