Сомали: очередной виток напряженности

Азия и Африка сегодня. 2025. № 3. С. 14–21.

Хайруллин Т. Р., Коротаев А.В.

The article examines another round of destabilization in Somalia caused by conflicts amid territorial and economic disputes over Somali ports, as well as contradictions between federal and regional authorities. It is shown that the deal concluded in early 2024 between Ethiopia and unrecognized Somaliland led to a serious round of tension that threatened to escalate into a regional conflict. The active actions of the federal Government of Mogadishu, which did not recognize the deal, escalated the situation in such a way that a number of regional players intervened in the conflict. As a result, Turkey's diplomatic efforts, which have friendly relations with each side, led to the conclusion of peace agreements between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, automatically reducing tensions. Another episode was the contradictions within the Somali states related to the presidential elections held in the state of Jubaland at the end of 2024. The Federal Government in Mogadishu did not recognize the election results and sent troops to restore order and prevent the escalation of the conflict. It is shown that the conflict has quite deep roots, which lie, among other things, in the political figure of the re-elected president of the state of Jubaland, his ties with the Kenyan and Ethiopian authorities, the activities of radical Islamist groups, as well as clan and tribal contradictions.

Keywords: Африка, Africa, instability, Somalia, нестабильность, Африканский рог, Horn of Africa, кланы, clans, Turkish-Qatari alliance, Сомали, турецко-катарский альянс

Publication based on the results of: State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the World Order Transformation (2025)