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Оценка климатообусловленных рисков для территории Ханты-Мансийского автономного округа - Югры
It is recommended to use the methods of the Climate Safety Data Sheet (Ministry of Natural Resources Russian Federation) and the Climate Risk Assessment (Ministry of Economic Development Russian Federation) to assess climate risks as part of the regional climate change adaptation plan development. For the Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous okrug, the lists of identified threats are similar, including dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and their consequences, as well as forecasts of climate change until the middle and end of the 21st century. Floods are the most destructive phenomenon (for 37 settlements it is advisable to resettle residents), but dangerous phenomena associated with high temperatures and aridity are also manifested. The fire-burned area in dry years can reach 120-140 thousand hectares. 7 phenomena (landslides; suffusion; flat and ravine erosion; flood; hurricanes, tornadoes, strong wind; heat; drought) periodically reach a catastrophic level. In terms of exposure and vulnerability to hazards, there are marked differences between the western mountainous part of the Okrug (6%) and the low-lying flattened main area. Possible economic damage from climate risks can vary from 1.4 to 4.6 billion rubles in year. Both methods need to be improved. It is necessary to more clearly define the objects for which risks are assessed (there are from 1.5 to 3 thousand of them in the region), conduct an inventory and create a system for collecting information on damages due to dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. The level of danger according to the methodology of the Ministry of Economic Development for drought, flooding, strong winds, precipitation and fire hazard can be underestimated.