Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability in the United Kingdom after 1960: A Demographic Structural Analysis

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside. 2017. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 113–158.

Ортманс О. А., Маццео Э., Мещерина К. В., Коротаев А. В.

In the current paper, we investigate the predictive ability of Goldstone’s demographic structural model. In particular we seek to apply Turchin’s version of it to modeling the social pressures for political instability in the UK. It is then demonstrated that Turchin’s analysis of ‘demographic structural’ pressures in the US presents similar conditions that developed under neoliberalism during the same time periods in both countries. It is also demonstrated that the modeling of social pressures toward political instability in the UK and the USA performed by Peter Turchin and us can throw some light on the factors and patterns of the global sociopolitical destabilization wave of the 2010s. Thus, Goldstone’s demographic structural model might have some predictive potential not only at the national level, but also global scale.

Ключевые слова: неолиберализм, политическая нестабильность, социальное давление, Neoliberalism, political instability, global sociopolitical destabilization wave of the 2010s, social pressure, political stress indicator, mass mobilization potential, Goldstone’s demographic structural model, глобальная волна социально-политической дестабилизации 2010 г., индикатор политической напряженности, мобилизационный потенциал, демографически-структурная теория Джека Голдстоуна

ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ ПОДГОТОВЛЕНА ПО РЕЗУЛЬТАТАМ ПРОЕКТА: Ближний и Средний Восток в контексте глобального фазового перехода (2017)