Loans vs. Lives: Credit Obligations and Childbirth in Russia

Population Research and Policy Review. 2026. Vol. 45. Article 19.

Вакуленко Е. С., Евграфова Р. Ю., I. A. Trofimenko

This research focuses on analyzing the relationship between credit obligations, including mortgages, housing conditions, and the probability of having a child in the family in Russia. The research novelty lies in a complex approach towards analyzing the association between mortgages and reproductive behavior. A longitudinal household survey covering the period 2007–2022 was used. We estimated binary choice models on panel data with random individual effects and time fixed effects, and we also ran Cox proportional hazards models as a robustness check. To account for possible endogeneity, we used two strategies: two-year lagged values of credit variables and the instrumental variable (IV) approach. We considered the average mortgage rate in the region of residence and attitude to financial risk as instruments for the period of credit. To take into account possible heterogeneity, models for different groups of individuals by age, gender, and the presence of children were considered. A significant positive relationship was found between living area, having a mortgage and the period of credit, with the probability of having a second child. The positive debt-fertility correlation was particularly pronounced for younger families, suggesting the effectiveness of social mortgage programs, some of which have an age limit of 35 years. However, an association between the period of credit and the probability of having a first child is ambiguous, pointing to competing mechanisms. Whereas the burden of long-term debt may induce a potential “postponement effect”, credit access can also serve as an enabler for family formation.

Ключевые слова: рождаемость, Россия, ипотека, Russia, fertility, reproductive behavior, репродуктивные намерения, mortgage loans, credit obligations, кредитные обязательства

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