Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S.

Journal of Macroeconomics. 2025. Vol. 86. Article 103728.

Гуленков И. В.

A remarkably protracted surge in inflation in the U.S. has had a profound impact on the price- and wage-setting behavior. These changes suggest that the economy could have entered a regime characterized by higher trend inflation. While the impact of trend inflation on monetary policy effectiveness is well-studied, the effects on fiscal policy transmission has been largely overlooked. This study analyzes the fiscal transmission under different inflation regimes. The empirical analysis using state-dependent local projections reveals that in the post-WWII U.S. history fiscal multipliers in a high-inflation regime have been larger. This effect is driven by a crowding-in of consumption, which does not happen in the low-inflation state. We rationalize our findings withing a Markov-switching New Keynesian model with endogenous price stickiness and non-separable preferences. The model demonstrates that when different degree of monetary accommodation interacts with the switching mechanism, consumption is crowded-out in a low-inflation regime and crowded-in when trend inflation is high.

Ключевые слова: фискальная политика, fiscal policy, trend inflation, fiscal multiplier, фискальный мультипликатор, DSGE модель, DSGE model, regime switching, переключение режимов, трендовая инфляция

ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ ПОДГОТОВЛЕНА ПО РЕЗУЛЬТАТАМ ПРОЕКТА: Актуальные проблемы макроэкономической динамики и макроэкономической политики в России (2025)