EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF BANGLADESH IN THE CONTEXT OF SOUTH ASIAN DYNAMICS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal. 2025. No. 1. P. 61–72.

Абул Хасан М.

Bangladesh, being a country in South Asia and becoming a key player in the Bay of Bengal region, holds strategic significance at both regional and global levels. The article aims to delve into how Bangladesh has been salient to major powers, and therefore its future is largely shaped by the intricate regional geopolitical dynamics. This study looks at how domestic, regional, and extra-regional political, economic, and security factors affect the country's opportunities and challenges. It does this by reading scholarly literature, news articles, and reports on South Asian affairs, especially those that focus on Bangladesh, and conducting in-depth expert interviews. The study found that Bangladesh has enormous avenues to get engaged not only with neighboring countries, organizations, and forums but also with the regional and extra-regional ones, while the existing and forthcoming hurdles cannot be undermined.The study posits that while Bangladesh’s strategic location and its hedging foreign relations strategies with major powers have opened doors to prosperity – especially in terms of economic development and security cooperation– its weakness to deeply engage with other neighboring smaller nations and resolve disputes through dialogues and negotiations using diplomatic channels, as well as its inability to create strong leverage among major powers, could lead to a geopolitical trap in the near future. Ultimately, this situation may compel Bangladesh to align with a major power or a bloc, maintain a position of neutrality, or opt for strategic autonomy in its foreign relations, depending on the evolving domestic, regional, and global political, economic, and security dynamics.

Ключевые слова: geopolitics, regional politics, domestic politics, Bangladesh, South Asia, extra-regional politics, hedging in foreign relations