Количественный анализ социально-демографических факторов революционной дестабилизации: результаты и перспективы

Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии. 2024. Т. 27. № 3. С. 106–145.

Korotayev A., Мусиева Д. М., Zhdanov A.

Classification of theories of revolution by generations of the American sociologist J. Goldstone is one of the most common ways to systematize research in this area. In addition to the four generations of theories of revolutions already rooted in scientific discourse, the formation of a new fifth generation is noted in modern science. The article presents the results of the analysis of socio-demographic factors of revolutionary destabilization, which, according to the authors, can be attributed to the works of the fifth generation of theories of revolution. Quantitative cross-national studies of socio-demographic factors of revolutionary destabilization conducted to date show that the same socio-demographic factors can have very different effects on the likelihood of armed uprisings, on the one hand, and unarmed revolutionary actions— on the other. These studies demonstrate that the probability of unarmed revolutionary actions is higher in economically medium-developed countries with low infant mortality, a fairly high proportion of the urban population, fairly high levels of formal education and median age, and a not very high proportion of young people. On the other hand, armed uprisings are most likely in the poorest countries with very high infant mortality, a low proportion of the urban population, low levels of formal education and median age, and a very high proportion of young people in the total adult population ("youth hill"). Such important socio-demographic indicators as high population and socio-economic inequality increase the risks of both armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization.

Keywords: quantitative analysis, количественный анализ, политическая демография, political demographics, socio-demographic factors of revolutions, The causes of revolutions, социально-демографические факторы революций, причины революций

Publication based on the results of: Global challenges to the development of the "Afrasian" macro-zone of instability in the context of Russia's national interests (2024)