Механизм смены режимов мировой инфляции: 2012-2023 гг.

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика. 2024. Т. 59. № 1. С. 72–95.

Grigoryev L. M., Майхрович М. Я., Kheifets E., Жаронкина Д. В.

The paper examines the process of transition in the leading countries of the world from a regime of low inflation and interest rates in 2012–2019. to a regime of high inflation and even stagflation in 2020–2023. 11 countries were selected for analysis: the BRICS countries, the USA, the UK and four leading countries of the European Union: Germany, Spain, Italy, France. The considered trends in the first period show (on monthly statistics) the difficulty of isolating the role of classical factors determining inflationary processes (based on the consumer price index), such as monetary policy (M2) and unemployment. Already in this period, the influence of lagged factors in food and energy prices is noticeable. A not too vigorous recovery coupled with the tightening of Basel standards created a relatively comfortable and predictable environment of low inflation. In the context of the shock recession of 2020 and the subsequent transition to a regime of rapid inflation, the average monthly price growth rate in developed countries increased approximately threefold. The overall rate of inflation was accelerated by energy (and food) prices and consolidated so quickly that factors such as unemployment and money supply growth did not have time to play an independent role. Having reached high current values, inflation pulled up wages and consolidated both the level (one-sided elasticity) of inflation and the dynamics. The core inflation rate (industrial goods) grew in parallel with the rate of nominal labor costs per physical unit of output (LPU), and the latter created a “cost-push” effect. The increase in interest rates was intended to slow down inflation through a contraction of economic activity, but this is far from easy for legal entities in the short term. We can say that we see the “Phillips curve” in the microeconomic actions of the participants in the process

Keywords: экономический рост, стагфляция, economic growth, BRICS, БРИКС, потребительские цены, stagflation, consumer prices