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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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HSE University and the Russia Renewable Energy Development Association (RREDA) have signed a partnership and information cooperation agreement to support Renewable Energy of the Planet—2026, a national competition with international participation for students and early-career researchers. Applications are open on the competition's website until September 20, 2026.

 

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Bank capital and liquidity creation: Evidence from the Russian experience

Applied Econometrics. 2024. Vol. 73. P. 35–58.
Gorodilov A., Sokolov V.

In this paper we examine the relationship between regulatory bank capital and liquidity creation. We test the “financial fragility-crowding out hypothesis” and the “risk absorption hypothesis” on the sample of 885 Russian banks over the 2010–2019 period. Inspired by Berger and Bouwmanʼs (2009) approach, we develop a liquidity creation measure that simultaneously considers the category and maturity of secondary accounts. After conducting several robustness checks, we report that bank capital is negatively related to liquidity creation which supports the “financial fragility-crowding out hypothesis”. We also show that this relationship is independent of the bank size and the economic cycle. Our findings suggest that the Central Bank of Russia faces a trade-off between financial stability and liquidity creation by the banking system, as tougher regulatory capital requirements decrease banks’ abilities to finance the real sector of the economy.

Language: English
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Keywords: Basel IIIliquidity creationtotal capital ratiothe Russian banking system
Publication based on the results of:
Research in Financial Economics: Bank capital and liquidity creation by the Russian banking sector and research of mechanisms that reduce predatory trading on competitive financial markets (2024)
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