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Влияние внешних шоков на нездоровое поведение: пандемия COVID-19 и потребление алкоголя
The article studies the impact of external shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic on the likelihood and volumes of alcohol consumption in Russia. The variables of interest are excess mortality in the individual's region of residence (the variable responsible for stress measurement) and unemployment (the variable characterizing economic decline). Combining microdata from the RLMS HSE survey and regional data from Rosstat, the authors estimate econometric models for 2019— 2021, separately for men and women. The estimates obtained show that with an increase in the unemployment rate in the region by 1%, the likelihood of alcohol consumption has been decreasing by 2% for women in 2020, by 3% for men in 2020, and by 2% for men in 2021. The volume of consumption of pure ethanol among alcohol consumers increased by 1—2% with an increase in excess mortality in the region by one unit (that is, 1 person per 100 thousand inhabitants) for both men and women. At the same time, the analysis revealed no statistically significant relationship between the volume of alcohol consumption and unemployment. The study generally confirms the hypothesis that, in 2020—2021, changes in alcohol consumption in Russia were caused by multidirectional factors, namely, stress and deterioration of the economic situation. Some other factors changed their significance in 2020—2021 compared to the pre-pandemic year. Thus, education became a significant factor of the probability of alcohol consumption, with a positive effect for women and a negative effect for men. Compared to the baseline level, in women with higher levels of education, the likelihood of consuming alcohol at least sometimes increases by 20-30%; in men, on the contrary, it decreases by 10%. In 2021, unlike in previous years, both the likelihood and amount of alcohol consumption were positively associated with income for both men and women. At the same time, both the probability and volume of consumption decreased for those living in small settlements, and conversely, men living in capital cities consumed more alcohol. The study confirms that a range of both micro- and macro-level factors influence alcohol consumption, and the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to its overall dynamics.