Сопоставление динамики финансовых и бизнес-циклов в странах БРИКС

Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения. 2023. Т. 16. № 4. С. 450–476.

Shchepeleva M., Филиппов С. А.

 

Subject. These countries are among the fastest developing and growing economies. However, research on the relationship between financial and business cycles for the BRICS countries is insufficient compared with the large number of scientific works affecting the eurozone or G7 states. This study aims to fill this gap and provide information on the relationship between financial and business cycles in the BRICS countries.

Goals. Determine the main characteristics of cycle phases (amplitude and duration) for the BRICS countries and assess the degree of their synchronization.

Methodology. The research methods used include an algorithm for periodization of various phases of financial and business cycles, proposed by D. Harding and A. Pagan in 2003, analysis of concordance coefficients to determine the degree of synchronization of different cycles, as well as logistic regression to quantify the probability of a recession in real life. sector in the presence of a financial crisis.

Results. The results obtained indicate a high degree of synchronization of financial and business cycles in the BRICS countries, comparable to the countries of the European Union. At the same time, the degree of synchronization changes during crisis events and after political decisions. The degree of synchronization of business cycles turns out to be much higher than that of financial cycles.

Conclusions. The results obtained should be taken into account when coordinating the economic policies of the BRICS countries. When using certain fiscal, monetary or macroprudential instruments, countries must take into account that their decisions will affect other member countries of the organization.

Keywords: BRICS, БРИКС, финансовый цикл, financial cycle, коэффициент конкордации, business cycle, бизнес-цикл, concordance correlation coefficient