Правый либерализм в современной Европе: предикторы голосования и портрет избирателя

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 12: Политические науки. 2023. Т. 1. № 1. С. 98–118.

Ankudinov I., Inshakov I.

For the most part, electoral and party research today is centered on the behavior of voters in two or four major clusters that can be conventionally placed on a scale from left to right. On the same scale, there are smaller groups whose value of separation is often questioned. This paper focuses on one of these groups: we consider a segment of voters united on the basis of their support for right-wing liberal parties and try to identify the most significant determinants of their choice. Based on the existing concepts of voting and data from the European Social Survey, 2016–2018, we generalize possible predictors – party and political selfidentification, ideological stances, social setting and material status – up to three theories (‘ideological core’, ‘defectors’ and ‘winners’), and test their plausibility using regression tools. Modeling results show that for a number of parameters the separation of new subgroup is justified. First, we reject the hypothesis of a strategic non-voting for right-liberals (on the contrary, respondents often “strategically” vote for them rather than for some personally closer party). Second, we find similar characteristics of the voter profile in different European countries; in particular, people who share the values of non-interference (associated with opposition to income redistribution and cultural restrictions) are more inclined to electorally back the liberal right. On the other hand, for a complete picture it is not enough to indicate ideological or cleavage preferences: the fact of voting is strongly influenced by person’s socio-economic background, confirming the earlier remarks about certain “privileges” in this electoral segment.

Keywords: политические партии, либерализм, liberalism, political parties, электоральные предпочтения, Classical liberalism, классический либерализм, electoral preferences, voter profile, портрет избирателя