Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics: Africa’s Futures

P. 461–490.

Korotayev A., Shulgin S., Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J., Leonid Grinin

This chapter presents forecasts for the emergence of large-scale political and demographic collapses and for the economic growth of some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the likelihood of armed civil conflicts and population impoverishment is the highest in the coming decades. Korotayev et al. apply several advanced mathematical models: (1) to forecast the risks of armed conflict, where population, median age, and education are the main explanatory factors; and (2) to forecast economic growth, which is a function of the same variables and risks of large-scale armed civil conflicts. It is important to note that mathematical models consider the interaction of explanatory factors with each other, thereby creating feedback effects. Using these methods, Korotayev et al. calculate three possible scenarios for the development of each of the countries under consideration in the twenty-first century: (1) a pessimistic one, (2) an inertial one, and (3) an optimistic one assuming the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030. The modeling results suggest that the Sahel could become the most disadvantaged region. The four countries of this region are characterized by: (1) a negligible difference between the inertial scenario and the pessimistic scenario; (2) extremely high risks of full-scale civil wars in the near future; and (3) reaching the level of middle-income countries only by the end of this century, even under the most optimistic scenario. Korotayev et al. conclude that the main way of mitigating the risks of sociodemographic collapses is rapid progress toward achieving the SDGs in the very near future, which seems impossible without adequate support from the world community.

Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), political collapses, demographic collapses, the economic growth

In book

Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome

Springer, 2023.