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Применение Google Trends для прогнозирования миграции из России: агрегация поисковых запросов и учет лаговой структуры
Прикладная эконометрика. 2024. № 73. С. 78–101.
Bronitsky G., Vakulenko E.
This paper proposes a method for predicting migration based on search query data statistics using Google Trends Index (GTI). We improved the existing methodology in two directions: firstly, we proposed an approach for selecting key search queries and aggregating them based on various statistical criteria; secondly, we showed the importance of including in the migration model the time lag structure of search queries, depending on the goals of the migration and the associated GTIs. Based on the monthly data of the German statistical office on the volume of migration from Russia to Germany from January 2011 to August 2022, we demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches. The results show that distributed lag migration models with GTI are better predict migration than SARIMA models. Average lag estimates, i.e. the response time of migration statistics to search queries on the topics “embassy”, “work” and “study”, turned out to be 5.6, 6.5 and 8 months, respectively. It is shown that in order to predict migration from Russia to Germany, it is sufficient to take into account only search queries related to the topic "embassy".
Language:
Russian
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Numerous studies have shown that indigenous populations experience poorer health outcomes compared to people with other backgrounds. However, the interpretation of these disparities remains challenging due to differences in living conditions and social environments, as well as by potential measurement-related biases. Little is known about whether the underlying mechanisms of mental health outcomes differ between ...
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Cham: Springer, 2026.
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Economies 2026 Vol. 14 No. 07 P. 277
The increasingly rapid process of de-dollarization in the context of growing geopolitical fragmentation has significantly altered the monetary dynamics of the global economy, thereby posing important questions about economic resilience and sustainable development in the emerging world. This research investigates de-dollarization-related macro-financial conditions and their association with economic resilience in the BRICS+ countries during the ...
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The rules for collecting, processing and using personal information affect the
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Scientific publishing house Infinity, 2026.
Science Conference Proceedings combine materials of the conference – research papers and thesis reports of scientifi c workers. They examine technical, juridical and sociological aspects of research issues. Some articles deal
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In the coming millennium, the transformation of our world has become a matter
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