Экономика стран «пояса соседства» в условиях пандемии COVID-19 и особенности посткризисного восстановления

Экономика и управление. 2021. Т. 27. № 11. С. 878–889.

Radionov S., Яковлев И. А.

Aim. The presented study aims to identify key factors affecting the macroeconomic situation in the EAEU countries and Tajikistan (hereinafter referred to as the region) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Tasks. This study summarizes trends in the development of the neighborhood belt countries in recent years; investigates changes in the real, monetary, fiscal, and external sectors of the economies caused by the spread of COVID-19; identifies the vulnerability factors of the countries in the region and key trends in responding to the crisis and post-crisis recovery.
Methods. To investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the macroeconomic situation in the neighborhood belt countries, the authors analyze the dynamics of major macroeconomic indicators characterizing the state of the real, monetary, external, and fiscal sectors of the economies under consideration.
Results. The macroeconomic situation in the neighborhood belt countries at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and during the post-crisis recovery is largely similar. The effects of the pandemic include sharp depreciation of national currencies, increased budget deficits, and increased national debt. Post-crisis recovery in the region is characterized by persistent risks to fiscal and debt sustainability and the effect of pro-inflationary factors.
Conclusions. Despite the consistent post-crisis recovery of the neighborhood belt countries, sustainable growth is still threatened by the possible deterioration of the epidemiological situation, national budget deficit, high level of national debt, and increasing inflationary pressure. Macroeconomic policy in the countries of the region can be improved by enhancing the macroeconomic forecasting system and applying budget rules for managing budget and debt risks.

Keywords: государственный долг, платежный баланс, денежно-кредитная политика, monetary policy, государственный бюджет, balance of payments, макроэкономическая стабильность, macroeconomic stability, national debt, National budget, COVID-19