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News
August 17, 2026
‘I Dream of Simple Things
Anastasia Gergenreter specialises in applied statistics and econometrics. In this interview for the Young Scientists of HSE University project, she talked about why she studies addictive substance use, two very different Fishers, and the cherry blossom season at the Main Botanical Garden in Moscow.
August 13, 2026
‘Working with AI Solves a Wide Range of Engineering Problems
Artificial intelligence is a working tool based on a balanced combination of algorithms and engineering. Experts and doctoral students from the HSE Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics explain how AI technologies can improve an application, device, or system, and what engineering tasks are solved in the process.
August 12, 2026
‘I Would Like My Research to Help Make the World a Calmer and Better Place
Whatever task Saraa Ali, Junior Research Fellow at the Laboratory of Methods for Big Data Analysis (LAMBDA) of the AI and Digital Science Institute (HSE Faculty of Computer Science), is working on, she thinks about how it can benefit people. She told the Young Scientists of HSE University project about her large family, diagnosing three-phase motors, and her dream of building a children’s home in her native country.

 

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STTM: an efficient approach to estimating news impact on stock movement direction

PeerJ Computer Science. 2022. Vol. 8. Article e1156.
Riabykh A., Surzhko D., Konovalikhin M., Koltsov S.

Open text data, such as financial news, are thought to be able to affect or to describe stock market behavior, however, there are no widely accepted algorithms for extracting the relationship between stock quotes time series and fast-growing textual representation of economic information. The field remains challenging and understudied. In particular, topic modeling as a powerful tool for interpretable dimensionality reduction has been hardly ever used for such tasks. We present a topic modeling framework for assessing the relationship between financial news stream and stock prices in order to maximize trader’s gain. To do so, we use a dataset of economic news sections of three Russian national media sources (Kommersant, Vedomosti, and RIA Novosti) containing 197,678 economic articles. They are used to predict 39 time series of the most liquid Russian stocks collected over eight years, from 2013 to 2021. Our approach shows the ability to detect significant return-predictive signals and outperforms 26 existing models in terms of Sharpe ratio and annual return of simple long strategy. In particular, it shows a significant Granger causal relationship for more than 70% of portfolio stocks. Furthermore, the approach produces highly interpretable results, requires no domain[1]specific dictionaries, and, unlike most existing industrial solutions, can be calibrated for individual time series. This makes it directly usable for trading strategies and analytical tasks. Finally, since topic modeling shows its efficiency for most European languages, our approach is expected to be transferrable to European stock markets as well.

Research target: Computer Science
Language: English
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DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: topic modelingtime seriesGranger Causality Teststock marketsSharpe ratioStock movement
Publication based on the results of:
Modeling the structure and socio-psychological factors of news perception (2022)
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