• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Articles
  • The interaction of environmental systems and human development in a time of wild cards. A big data enhanced foresight study
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
October 12, 2026
Road Injuries Leading Cause of Death Among Men Aged 10 to 39
Worldwide, road injuries are the leading cause of death among males aged 10–39. An international team of researchers reached this conclusion as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, analysing data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2023. Their findings have been published in The Lancet Public Health, with HSE University Professor Vasily Vlassov listed among the collaborators.
October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.
October 7, 2026
‘Our Team Consists of True Leaders in Their Respective Academic Disciplines
The HSE International Centre of Decision Choice and Analysis studies a wide range of methods for analysing decision-making and possible scenarios for the development of natural, socio-economic, and political phenomena using various mathematical models. The application of advanced mathematical methods to forecasting helps to prevent negative outcomes and avoid erroneous decisions. The HSE News Service spoke to the centre’s director, Prof. Fuad Aleskerov, about its work.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

The interaction of environmental systems and human development in a time of wild cards. A big data enhanced foresight study

Journal of Environmental Management. 2022. Vol. 316. Article 115169.
Proskuryakova L. N.

The article contributes to the research discussion around the human-natural and social-ecological systems by identification of a comprehensive list of global trends related to integrated interaction between environmental systems and human development, including climate change, pollution, new quality of economic growth, and challenges for education and healthcare. The foresight study behind it encompasses a combination of quantitative (big data ) and qualitative (expert) methods. This approach allows for a systemic vision of structural shifts, assessing their probability and impact. The outcomes of the study include the list of global environmental and human development trends and factors classified by STEEPV categories, their effects that split into opportunities and threats, and an assessment of their inter-relation and mutual impact. Policy implications focus on possible areas of intervention for sustainable growth.

Research target: Economics and Management Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Language: English
Full text
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: человеческий капиталприродные ресурсыправа человекаустойчивое развитиеhuman rightsметодология форсайтаэкологические системыGreen growthзеленый рост natural resourcesForesighttrend monitoringhuman capitalsustainable developmentмониторинг трендовEnvironmental systems
Similar publications
Революционная активность в цифровую эпоху: особенности возникновения и развития в контексте политических режимов (часть 2)
А.И. Жданов, А.В. Коротаев, Социологические исследования 2026 № 9 С. 3–15
The study examines the impact of digital technologies – primarily the Internet and social media – on the likelihood of revolutionary processes emerging in the 21st century. Based on an analysis of panel data for countries around the world in the 21st century and the use of logistic regression for rare events, it is shown ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Varieties of regional innovation systems around the world and catch-up by latecomers
Kim J., Lee K., Industrial and Corporate Change 2026 Vol. 35 No. 5 P. 1122–1152
This study represents one of the first attempts to develop a global typology of regional innovation systems (RIS) across both advanced and catching-up economies, identifying distinct pathways for regional technological catch-up. Utilizing United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patent citation data from 33 regions worldwide over the period 2000–2017, we construct several RIS indicators, ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Knowledge management in future communities enhances smart city initiatives: path and mediation
Xu S., Yu H., Ren T. et al., Journal of Knowledge Management 2025 Vol. 29 No. 10 P. 3410–3436
Purpose This study aims to investigate the role of knowledge management in enhancing urban innovation within the context of smart cities, with a particular emphasis on the function of future communities as foundational units of knowledge-driven development. It aims to distinguish the respective contributions of knowledge acquisition and knowledge sharing as input mechanisms, while examining the ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Формирование системы взаимодействия экспертов и власти в российской внешней политике в постсоветский период
Savinykh M., Вестник Томского государственного университета. История 2026 Т. 102 № 17 С. 147–156
This study investigates the evolution of interaction between expert communities and state authorities in Rus-sian foreign policy from the late Soviet period through the post-Soviet era. The aim is to reconstruct the historical trajec-tory of expert-authority relations, identify the critical junctures that shaped contemporary practices, and explain the mechanisms of path-dependency that have produced the ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Этичное потребление и гражданское общество (о новых аспектах «невидимой» связи в России)
Shabanova M. A., Социологические исследования 2026 № 9 С. 96–109
The article raises the question of ethical consumption as an “invisible” sphere of modern civil society in Russia, one that expands its boundaries and functions. Using data from a representative survey (N=2,011, December 2024), the study reveals the level of Russians’ engagement in various types of ethical consumption that cover different stages of goods handling. ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Потребительские практики китайского среднего класса в контексте конфуцианских ценностей
Veselova L. S., Азия и Африка сегодня 2026 № 9 С. 38–48
The article examines the consumer practices of China’s middle class in the context of the transformation of Confucian values under the influence of market reforms, urbanization, the expansion of the domestic market, and the state ideology of contemporary China. The focus is on how traditional norms of family responsibility retain their normative significance while being ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Влияние санкционных шоков на техническую эффективность сельскохозяйственных предприятий: опыт молочного животноводства региона
Nikulina Y., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия EC "Economics". 2026. № 1.
This paper estimates the impact of the international sanctions of 2014 and 2022, as well as the food embargo, on the technical efficiency of agricultural enterprises. The assessment was carried out using panel data from agricultural enterprises specializing in dairy production in the Leningrad Region for the period 2010–2023, employing stochastic frontier analysis. It is ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Economic Globalization and Environmental Outcomes in Heterogeneous Panels: Composition, Technique, and Distributional Evidence from Shanghai Cooperation Organization Economies
Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 2026
This study reassesses whether economic globalization is compatible with carbon mitigation across nine Shanghai Cooperation Organization economies over 1997 to 2024. A sequenced panel design is applied: pre-estimation diagnostics establish cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and mixed integration orders; fixed effects with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors provides the preferred conditional mean estimate; Hansen threshold regression, ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Торговые ограничения как инструмент международного давления (на примере импортных поставок в Россию)
Biryukova O. V., США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура 2026 Т. 10 С. 37–50
The article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the application of trade restrictions as a tool of international pressure using the case of import supplies to Russia. Special attention is paid to legal conflicts within the World Trade Organization (WTO) related to the application of national security exceptions (Article XXI of the GATT), and ...
Added: October 10, 2026
Управление проектами: учебник
М.: НИЦ Инфра-М, 2026.
This textbook synthesizes modern concepts and approaches in the field of project management and is designed for use in project management courses. The material is based on the recommendations of the International Project Management Association (IPMA) and international standards ISO 21500 and ISO 21502. It meets the requirements of the latest generation of federal state educational ...
Added: October 10, 2026
Человеко-машинная система анализа и улучшения качества условий проживания населения
Aleskerov F. T., Вайншток А. П., Делахова А. М. et al., Информационные процессы 2026 Т. 26 № 3 С. 895–913
The development and effective management of territorial entities are priority issues for all states, particularly in the context of the digital transformation of public administration. Over the past decade, the integration of information technologies into municipal and regional planning has significantly altered approaches to strategic development, service delivery, and public engagement. This paper describes the ...
Added: October 9, 2026
Distressed firms and loan guarantee programmes during the COVID-19 crisis
Bessonova E., Popova S., Fedulova M., Emerging Markets Review 2026 Vol. 75 Article 101564
To mitigate the shocks caused by the pandemic-related restrictions, many governments implemented extensive support measures for companies facing sharp declines in revenues. In Russia, loan guarantee programmes allowed many firms to apply for loans during the pandemic. As a result, the number of small loans soared. Participation in the loan guarantee programmes helped firms in ...
Added: October 8, 2026
События «Арабской весны» в Марокко как частично успешный революционный эпизод
Коротаев А.В., Бурова А. Н., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 Vol. 122 No. 3 P. 160–178
The article analyzes the course and consequences of the events of the “Arab Spring” in Morocco and provides answers to two main questions: can these events be classified as a revolutionary episode, and, if so, was it successful, and to what extent? After examining the relevant historiography and comparing the approaches, concepts, and definitions of ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Non-discriminatory storefront of digital platforms and ecosystems: Consumer experience and regulatory frameworks
Kuzminov Y., Koshel A., Kruchinskaia E., Russian Journal of Economics 2026 No. 12(3) P. 311–334
The expansion of digital platforms and ecosystems is reshaping consumption and the structure of modern markets. In the Russian context, a representative survey conducted by the authors indicates frequent online purchasing driven primarily by time savings, broader assortment and price accessibility. Platforms thus generate consumer benefits, including non-monetary gains that are not fully captured by ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Динамика государственной политики обновления городской среды в России (2000–2020-е гг.): факторы институциональной изменчивости и стабильности
Stremoukhov D., Черников П. Е., Стародубцев А. В., Политическая наука 2026 № 3 С. 206–233
Over the past two decades, Russian urban renewal policy has evolved from fragmented and weakly demanded initiatives – such as Integrated Territorial Development (Kompleksnoe Osvoenie Territorii, KOT) and Development of Built-Up Areas (Razvitie Zastroennykh Territorii, RZT) – toward the formation of a large-scale nationwide mechanism of Integrated Territorial Development (Kompleksnoe Razvitie Territorii, KRT). This article ...
Added: October 7, 2026
Decision support system for improving the quality of life of the population
Aleskerov F. T., Chaika E., Дерендяев А. Б. et al., Procedia Computer Science 2026 No. 287 P. 590–595
Under conditions of dynamic socio-economic changes, effective planning and decision-making are key factors in ensuring a high quality of life for the population in territories. This paper presents a decision support system for territorial administrations for the development and implementation of sustainable development strategies, using one of the regions of the Russian Federation – the ...
Added: October 7, 2026
Цифровые платформы в России: состояние, экономические эффекты и перспективы развития
Kuzminov Y., Kruchinskaia E., Koshel A. et al., М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
В научном докладе цифровые платформы впервые рассмотрены не как частный сегмент цифрового рынка, а как новый институциональный механизм организации экономики. В одной исследовательской рамке соединены экономика, право, социология, компьютерные науки, информационная безопасность, данные бизнеса и регуляторная практика — все то, что позволяет взглянуть на платформы как на институт со своими правилами игры. Особую ценность работе ...
Added: October 6, 2026
Потребительские настроения населения в III квартале 2026 г.
Lola I. S., Ostapkovich G. V., Asoskov D., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Центр конъюнктурных исследований Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ представляет информационно-аналитический материал «Потребительские настроения населения в III квартале 2026 г.», подготовленный в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ. В основу обзора положены ежеквартальные опросы более 5 тыс. человек в возрасте от 16 лет и старше. Такие опросы Федеральная служба государственной статистики (Росстат) проводит во всех субъектах ...
Added: October 6, 2026
Беспилотные воздушные суда и государственный надзор: приватность, полномочия, технические риски
Diskin E., Прожерин Д. В., Теоретическая и прикладная юриспруденция 2026 Т. 29 № 3 С. 221–234
Introduction: Drawing on the legal orders of the United States, the European Union, and the Russian Federation, the article provides a comparative legal analysis of three regulatory models governing the use of unmanned aircraft (UA; drones, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) by public authorities for government oversight: the U.S. model, based on a combination of aviation rules and ...
Added: October 6, 2026
Modern models of international competitiveness of Big Tech corporations: internal drivers versus external shocks
Rastvortseva S., Tyushkevich Y., Salushkina Z. S., Journal of regional and international competitiveness 2026 Vol. 7 No. 2 P. 38–49
This paper examines the contemporary models of international competitiveness adopted by Big Tech corporations between 2010 and 2025. The study aims to identify the internal drivers underpinning the resilience of technological giants and to assess their capacity to withstand external shocks, including sanctions, geo-economic fragmentation, and regulatory shifts. To achieve this objective, the authors employ ...
Added: October 5, 2026
De Gruyter Handbook of Eurasian Societies
De Gruyter, 2026.
Post-Soviet Eurasia is one of the world's most geopolitically consequential and rapidly transforming regions. Developments across it increasingly reshape political, economic and social relations far beyond its borders. Understanding these dynamics is therefore both intellectually urgent and analytically demanding, requiring an interdisciplinary approach capable of moving beyond established categories and fragmented national perspectives. This handbook provides ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Регулятивное и нерегулятивное давление в ESG-повестке российских компаний
Klaro Ramires P. M., Veselova A., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2026 Т. 23 № 3 С. 699–718
As Russia transitions toward a green economy and reshapes its sustainable development agenda, understanding the external and internal factors influencing companies’ adoption of ESG principles is increasingly important. The study examines the relationships between external institutional pressure, internal organizational capabilities, and the effectiveness of corporate ESG practices. It focuses on external regulatory and non-regulatory mechanisms, ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Устойчивое развитие городских агломераций: энергоэффективность и климатическая адаптация
Dregulo A., СПб.: Издательство Санкт-Петербургского государственного экономического университета, 2026.
В монографии представлен междисциплинарный анализ современных вызовов перехода городских агломераций к климатически нейтральному и энергоэффективному развитию. В работе рассмотрены теоретические подходы к определению городских агломераций, международных стратегий устойчивого развития, проведен анализ климатических рисков, энергопотребления и секторальных выбросов парниковых газов в Российской Федерации, стран Европейского союза и др. В России, несмотря на рост энергопотребления и выбросов ...
Added: September 29, 2026
Barriers to Breakthroughs: Navigating Renewable Energy Innovation, Uncertainty, and Economic Growth for Sustainable Development
Li C., Tiwari S., Kazemzadeh E. et al., Sustainable Development 2026 Vol. 34 No. 5 P. 7109–7139
The transition to renewable energy is a cornerstone of sustainable development, yet it faces significant challenges. Key barriers include grid integration issues, technological immaturity, high initial costs, and policy and regulatory uncertainty. However, overcoming these hurdles offers substantial rewards, including new economic opportunities, lower energy costs, accelerated technological innovation, and more inclusive growth—ultimately paving the ...
Added: September 23, 2026
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit