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Эконометрический анализ ошибок официальных прогнозов инфляции в России
Финансы и учет. 2011. № 10. С. 29-35.
In this paper we analyze official monthly inflation forecast in Russia using ARMA-model. The main purpose of the analysis is to test hypotheses about whether the official inflation forecast is an instrument of monetary policy.
Шевченко Е. С., Вестник Ивановского государственного университета. Серия: Экономика 2017 № 1 (31) С. 85-89
Рассмотрены институциональные факторы, оказывающие влияние на механизм инфляционного таргетирования. В рамках теории контрактов описано взаимодействие основных макроэкономических агентов и варианты проявления их оппортунистического поведения. Предложены классификации институциональных факторов по сфере их формирования, а также по возможности изменения во времени. ...
Added: October 2, 2019
Shulgin A. G., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2015 Т. 26 № 2 С. 64-98
Optimization of coefficients in monetary policy rules is performed on the base of the DSGE-model with two independent monetary policy instruments estimated on the Russian data. It was found that welfare maximizing policy rules lead to inadequate result and pro-cyclical monetary policy. Optimal coefficients in Taylor rule and exchange rate rule allow decreasing about 20% ...
Added: October 10, 2014
Kuznetsova O., Merzlyakov S., Деньги и кредит 2016 № 11 С. 19-25
Since 2013, the Bank of Russia has been applying the signals about the future policy moves as an instrument of forward guidance. The goal of the paper is to understand the effectiveness of this policy and its future prospects in Russia. To this purpose, the authors reconsider the main issues of time-based and data-based forward ...
Added: November 10, 2016
Gurvich E., Sokolov V., Улюкаев А. В., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2009 № 1-2 С. 104-126
The ability of a central bank to conduct an independent monetary policy is a key condition for switching to a free floating exchange rate regime and for pursuing inflation targeting policies. The objective of our study is to evaluate how the exchange rate policies conducted by the Russian Central Bank (RCB) during different periods have ...
Added: February 11, 2013
Свирина Е. М., Криворучко Е. М., Деньги и кредит 2015 № 11 С. 46-52
Статья посвящена анализу особенностей реализации режима таргетирования инфляции при сохранении элементов системы валютного регулирования. Представлен опыт развивающихся стран, таргетирующих инфляцию в условиях волатильности валютного курса. Предлагается рассматривать режим таргетирования инфляции в более гибком формате, позволяющем встроить инструменты валютной политики в структурные элементы режима, не создавая условий противодействия процессу поддержания ценовой стабильности в стране. ...
Added: May 22, 2018
Свирина Е. М., Экономика. Налоги. Право 2015 № 1 С. 100-106
The article analyzes the experience of two developed countries - New Zealand and Canada, which successfully carried out the transition to the inflation targeting regime in the conditions of macroeconomic instability expressed in the fall of GDP growth rate, unemployment growth and inflation. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate, on the example of ...
Added: May 22, 2018
Kuznetsova O., Merzlyakov S., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP12 "Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа". 2015. № 02.
Our paper is devoted to the Bank of Russia’s information policy. In particular, we consider regular and irregular communication channels used for the transmission of information, and compare them to other countries with inflation targeting. Moreover, we discuss further improvement of the Bank of Russia’s transparency: publication of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ ...
Added: October 22, 2015
Zhemkov M., Вопросы экономики 2019 № 9 С. 70-89
Inflation targeting in Russia implies maintaining stable low inflation at a level of 4% throughout the country. The presence of structural factors in some regions can determine deviations from the all-Russian inflation, which can lead to different effects of monetary policy in Russian regions. In this paper, we analyze regional heterogeneity of inflation and factors ...
Added: March 10, 2020
Kuznetsova O., Merzlyakov S., Деньги и кредит 2015 № 12 С. 34-39
The paper is devoted to the information policy of the central banks. In particular, the authors consider regular and irregular
communication channels of the Bank of Russia used for the transmission of information, and compare them to other countries
with inflation targeting. Moreover, they discuss further improvement of the Bank of Russia’s transparency. ...
Added: December 4, 2015
Shulgin A. G., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP12 "Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа". 2014. № 02.
В работе на базе DSGE-модели с двумя независимыми инструментами монетарной политики, оцененной на российских данных за 2001–2012 гг., произведены расчеты оптимальных правил ва- лютной и денежно-кредитной политики. В правиле валютной политики оптимизируется параметр, отвечающий за степень гибкости валютного курса, а в правиле денежно-кредитной политики опти- мизируются коэффициенты в правиле Тэйлора. Набор коэффициентов в двух правилах ...
Added: August 17, 2014
Zhemkov M., / Bank of Russia. Series No. 68 / February 2021 "Bank of Russia Working Paper Series". 2021. No. 68.
This paper presents a forecast combination approach for short-term assessment of economic growth in Russia. Our method significantly expands the existing domestic academic literature and embraces most advanced nowcasting techniques. The key feature of our approach is forecasting the growth rates of components GDP by expenditure using scenario indicators and a huge set of high-frequency ...
Added: May 11, 2021
Evdokimova T., Zhirnov G., Инге К., Деньги и кредит 2019 Т. 78 № 3 С. 71-89
This paper examines the link between foreign exchange dynamics and inflation in developing countries with respect to the degree of inflation expectation anchoring they employed in 2011–2019. Particular attention is paid to analysis of the inflationary consequences of the considerable weakness of emerging markets’ currencies in summer 2018. Analysis of 2011–2019 confirms that inflation accelerates ...
Added: November 21, 2022
А. Апокин, Д. Белоусов, И. Голощапова et al., Вопросы экономики 2014 № 12
В статье выделены три основных недостатка современной денежно-кредитной политики. Во-первых, согласно расчетам авторов, наблюдаемое ужесточение монетарной политики избыточно. ВВП России в 2014 г. окажется по крайней мере на 3% ниже потенциального выпуска, а равновесная ключевая ставка, исходя из сложившихся до 2014 г. тенденций, не превышает 6,25% годовых. Во-вторых, ЦБ де-факто игнорирует цель стабильного функционирования и ...
Added: February 19, 2015
Pestova A., Вопросы экономики (Российская Федерация) 2017 № 4
This paper analyzes the basic parameters of monetary development in 2000-2015 in Russia. We provide the systematization of tools and objectives of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and identify the periods of homogeneity of monetary policy regimes. On the basis of this research we develop the recommendations for further quantitative research aimed at ...
Added: April 13, 2017
Malakhovskaya O. A., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2015 № 4 С. 36-49
The paper contains a calibration for a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using Russian data. The main objective of the paper is to determine whether the policy of exchange-rate targeting is appropriate when balance-of-payments shocks hit an economy which is characterized by a significant ratio of currency liabilities in the banking system and an increased ...
Added: October 23, 2015
Goryunov E., Drobyshevsky S., Kudrin A. L. et al., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 7 С. 5-34
The world economy has recently experienced a strong inflationary shock, which the leading research institutions and central banks were unable to predict. In advanced economies inflation rates spiked up to levels had not been seen for decades. Inflation also hit emerging economies albeit the shocks of such magnitude are more common for the countries of ...
Added: August 23, 2023
Coulibaly D., Kempf H., Journal of International Money and Finance 2019 No. 90 P. 19-33
Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting
countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the
implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected
depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and
thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward ...
Added: December 5, 2018
Smirnov S. V., Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 26-44
Based on an analysis of exchange rates and industrial production in the world’s twenty-five largest economies during the current global crisis, the author challenges the commonly held concept that the absorption of exogenous shocks that stabilizes the real sector of the economy is one of the advantages of a free-floating exchange rate policy. The article ...
Added: April 12, 2013
Синельникова Е. В., Российское предпринимательство 2011 № 10-2 С. 160-164
The article proposes models that allow assessing the demand for money in Russia, taking into account the increasing development of electronic payments. The equation considered in the article can be used to build predictive models of inflation. ...
Added: November 30, 2012
Dobrynskaya V. V., , in : Monetary Policy, Trade and Convergence. The Case of Transition Economies. : Berlin : LIT Verlag, 2009. P. 47-78.
The problem of optimal monetary policy is extremely relevant for Russia. Although the monetary authority claims that inflation targeting is the main goal of the monetary policy, empirical finding suggest that the real exchange rate targeting is of major importance (see Vdovichenko / Voronina 2004). Due to the rising flow of petrodollars, the rouble is ...
Added: August 1, 2013
Свирина Е. М., Криворучко С. В., Банковское дело 2015 № 4 С. 15-20
Inflation targeting implementation is unique in every country, even though it combines same structural elements. The individuality of the regime is expressed in the choice of monetary policy instruments, ways of assessing the economic and inflationary processes, forms of accountability to the government and society, targeting horizon and the desired level of inflation target, as ...
Added: May 22, 2018
Абрамова М. А., Криворучко С. В., Свирина Е. М., Банковские услуги 2015 № 5 С. 2-9
Приведены мнения экспертов по некоторым дискуссионным вопросам современной государственной денежно-кредитной политики России. Акценты сделаны на анализе целей деятельности Банка России в области денежно-кредитной политики, современного инструментария денежно-кредитного регулирования, вопросов применения режима таргетирования инфляции в России. ...
Added: May 22, 2018
Pak Y., Pekarski S. E., Экономическая политика 2022 Т. 17 № 6 С. 8-39
Financial repression refers to the distorting effect of certain government policies on the operation of the financial sector. Several empirical studies of financial repression point out that financial repression retards economic growth by decreasing investment activity in the economy, but the impact of financial repression on inflationary processes has not been adequately studied. This paper ...
Added: January 12, 2023
Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, Leonid Grigoriev, Evsey Gurvich et al., P. : Le cherche midi, 2013
The first yearbook, published by the Observatoire franco-russe, aims to provide the most complete analysis possible of the situation in Russia. Bringing together the contributions of some 50 recognized experts, it is organized around four themes: the economy, internal politics and society, regions and foreign and defense policy. The fifth part, entitled “Franco-Russian Miscellany”, illustrates ...
Added: March 5, 2014