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The Transformation of the South China Sea Issue in the US Foreign Policy: from Rebalancing to the Indo-Pacific Narrative
The chapter discusses the dynamics of the South China Sea issue through the prism of the US policy, a globali- zation of the controversy and its security implications. Arguably, the issue goes far beyond the regional framework, and its parameters are defined by the Si- no-American geopolitical competition, including by the mega-projects developed by the United States and China respectively.
The central argument of the chapter is that a great power competition propagated by the Trump admin- istration must be seen against the background of the intra-US debate that China’s rise will inevitable chal- lenge the present global power structure and a “rules- based international order” narrative. This scenario in- centivized Washington to initiate a strategy aimed at countering China’s maritime possibilities with the US- led “Indo-Pacific” format as a principal instrument.
As a special analytical focus, the implications of the In- do-Pacific region narrative for Southeast Asia are as- sessed and clarified. The dynamics of the international milieu in and around the South China Sea through the prism of ASEAN’s priorities is explored. The authors ar- gue that any scenario under which ASEAN or its mem- ber states may join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) will be detrimental to ASEAN’s interests, as its international credentials will be seriously undermined.
Concerning a future evolution of the South China Sea issue, ample evidence suggests that it will be getting increasingly complicated and shaped by the US-China contradictions not necessarily related to the South China Sea imbroglio itself. As Washington mainly fol- low the approach developed by the previous admin- istrations rather than completely revises it, a high de- gree of its continuity rather than radical changes can be expected.