Impact of the Arab Spring on Terrorist Activity in the Sahel

Ideology and Politics Journal. 2021. Vol. 19. No. 3. P. 34–49.

Issaev L., Korotayev A., Fain Egor

 

 The article studies the influence of the Arab Spring on the rise of terrorist activity in countries of the Sahel. For decades this region has been one of the most unstable in Africa and in the Afrasian instability zone. However, in the 2010s the Sahel experienced unprecedented growth of terrorist activity: by 2015 the number of terror attacks in the region had multiplied 7 times in comparison with 2010 statistics. The aim of this research is to find factors and mechanisms of terrorism’s spread in the region with quantitative methods. Conducted analysis has shown that there are several trajectories of the Arab Spring’s influence on terrorist activity in the Sahel. For instance, collapse of government structures in Libya during Arab Spring was a trigger for activation of Tuareg and Islamist terrorist movements in Mali and Niger. In Chad sudden rise of terrorist attacks is connected to so called “ISIS factor” when groups pledging allegiance to ISIS (like Boko Haram) aim to prove their ability to fight and to be “useful”. Finally, in Burkina Faso revolutionaries were able to repeat a classic Arab Spring scenario of 2011 and to overthrow the regime of Blaise Compaoré. However, the fall of an authoritarian regime in Burkina Faso in 2014, just like in Libya, Yemen, or Egypt, has led to the inability of new government to guarantee security. As a result, a previously very calm and peaceful nation experienced explosive rise of terrorist attacks. 

Keywords: terrorism, Arab spring, instability, ISIS, Sahel

Publication based on the results of: Reconfiguration of the regional world order in the "Afrasian" zone of instability (2021)