Грозит ли Вьетнаму "цветная революция"?

Азия и Африка сегодня. 2021. № 6. С. 27–34.

Britov I.

The XIII Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam was held in Hanoi in late January - early February 2021. It settled, in particular, the question who will head the party for the next five years, and candidates for the country’s senior public position positions were nominated. Unlike many other countries where political crises emerged when the issue of power was raised, the congress in Vietnam passed in a calm socio-political atmosphere. According to the author, a "color revolution" is not foreseen in Vietnam in the future either. This is borne out by the analysis of a set of common causes and structural factors in Vietnam that have led to the breakdown of political systems around the world. It analyzes the socio-economic situation, the level of citizens' confidence in the authorities, the state of the political elite, the nature of the protest movement, the degree of readiness of the opposition forces to change the government in Vietnam, as well as the degree of external influence on the country. It appraises the significance of the XIII Congress of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam for the strengthening of economic and political stability in the society.

It is concluded that modern Vietnam has no conditions for a major government crisis, and there are no “ripe” structural factors of the “color revolution”.

Keywords: Вьетнам, политическая стабильность, Vietnam, цветная революция, political stability, color revolution, structural factors, XIII Congress of the CPV, структурные факторы, XIII съезд КПВ