Зависимость запасов древесины в лесах России от климатических параметров

Лесоведение. 2019. № 2. С. 83–92.

Грабовский В., Zamolodchikov D.

Mean timber storages across different species and age groups of forests based on the State Forest Inventory 2013 data were correlated by means of regression analysis to climatic variables, averaged over 1981–2000. The following species categories were predefined: all species, conifers, hardwoods, softwoods, and others. The following age groups were predefined: all ages, young growth, middle-aged, pre-mature, mature, and oldgrowth forests. Finally, the correlation and regression analyses were undertaken for each of the 20 age and species groups of forests. Mean annual temperature, difference of mean July and mean January temperatures, and annual precipitation were independent variables. Mean timber storages positively correlate to the mean annual temperature and humidity, and negatively correlate with the difference of mean July and mean January temperature. Coefficient of correlation between the mean storages and the mean annual temperature had pronounced growing trend across the species groups, as follows by value: other species, conifers, hardwoods, softwoods. Multiple polynomial regression equations were found for every species and age group. They had all possible linear and squared couplings between independent variables. Coefficients of determination had the highest values (R2 > 0.7) for all forests combined, for hardwood species, and also for mature and middle-aged forests of all species combined and hardwood species. Other forest species and all young-growth forests were the least predictable (R2 < 0.5). The regression equations could be used to forecast changes in the mean storages of timber under changing climate for all forests combined and forests of different age and specie composition.

Keywords: статистический анализ, statistical analysis, growing stocks, climate parameters, запасы древесины, климатические характеристики