Будущий кредитный цикл: угроза новой «эвтаназии рантье»

Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2020. Т. 24. № 4. С. 598–621.

Podrugina A., Tabakh A. V.

The article analyzes the behavior of the credit cycle in the period after the global financial crisis, as well as the consequences of changes in the «inter-crisis» period of 2010–2019 for the future credit cycle after new economic recession in 2020 caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The «credit crunch» phase, defined as a period of reduced credit activity under the low and declining interest rates, has been prolonged in many countries since the global financial crisis. The reason for this were both some mistakes in monetary policy and the tightening of financial regulation, primarily in the banking sector. Ultimately, this led to slower economic growth, reduced efficiency of the banking channel of monetary policy and the transition of nonfinancial companies to alternative funding sources and the transfer of financial risks to the nonbanking financial sector (primarily the shadow banking sector). According to the authors, the new world recession, caused by COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to further changes in the model of the credit cycle – funding opportunities at low interest rates be even more restricted (excluding public financing programs) and the Central Bank will act as «lender of primary resort» and the main risk collector. The level of interest rates will affect service of increasing public debts. In fact, under the ultra-low interest rates, credit crunch may occur in the debt market (except for companies with high credit rating), and financial risks will accumulate even more in the shadow banking sector. The results of the analysis allow us to form a «frame» for further research of the credit cycle after a current economic recession.

Keywords: кредитное сжатие, credit crunch, кредитный цикл, кредитные стандарты, credit cycle, credit standards, credit rationing, низкие процентные ставки, рационирование кредита