Оценка временного роста городов России

Региональная экономика: теория и практика. 2019. Т. 17. № 3. С. 402–417.

Rastvortseva S., Манаева И. В.

Subject This article deals with the issues related to the imbalance in the distribution of cities, which poses a threat to the economic development and social and political stability of Russia.

Objectives The article aims to estimate the temporal growth of Russian cities between 1897 and 2014.

Methods During the consideration of the subject matter, we applied Zipf's law, Gibrat's rule of proportionate growth, and the correlation method. The article analyzes the data of official statistics and archival materials for 1897–2014.

Results The article presents the results of the analysis of distribution of cities of Russia by number of inhabitants in the period of 1897–2014 and a temporal correlation matrix of Russian cities' growth rate during the specified period.

Conclusions The process of urban growth for the period 1897–2014 is ambiguous. Since 1989, large cities have been growing faster than the small ones due to the migration of people from small cities to larger ones. In general, the urban system of Russia is characterized as stable with uneven distribution of cities and high concentration of population in the largest of them.

Keywords: пространственная экономика, spatial economics, Gibrat's Law, закон Гибрата, закон Ципфа, Zipf's law, города России, cities of Russia, urban growth, рост городов