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Измерение внутриполитических дестабилизационных процессов: типы нестабильности и их связь с социально-политическими и экономическими факторами
Гл. 7. С. 95–114.
Keywords: количественный анализтипология нестабильностимассовая дестабилизациявнутриэлитная дестабилизациядоля молодого населения
Publication based on the results of:
Krasnov M., Труды по интеллектуальной собственности 2026 Т. 56 № 1 С. 8–28
Method of quantitative analysis was used to analyze the array of decisions of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation adopted in 1995–2025 in cases in which various issues related to education were considered. In total 209 decisions, resolutions and definitions were identified, which somehow affect Article 43 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation (the right to education). However, only 127 ...
Added: March 24, 2026
Krasnov M., Вестник Воронежского государственного университета. Серия: Право 2025 № 1 С. 8–34
The article presents the experience of quantitative analysis of the decrees of the President of the Russian Federation adopted from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2021. The author analyzed 6,104 decrees. They are classified into thematic blocks, within which narrower content groups are highlighted. This method of analysis, which the author calls the method ...
Added: May 7, 2025
Korotayev A., Мусиева Д. М., Zhdanov A., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2024 Т. 27 № 3 С. 106–145
Classification of theories of revolution by generations of the American sociologist J. Goldstone is one of the most common ways to systematize research in this area. In addition to the four generations of theories of revolutions already rooted in scientific discourse, the formation of a new fifth generation is noted in modern science. The article ...
Added: September 16, 2024
Zhdanov A., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2024 Т. 36 № 2 С. 113–141
There are some theoretical grounds to expect that general inflation can have an ambiguous effect on the likelihood ofthe outbreak ofrevolutionary actions: while high inflation has a positive effect on revolutionary activity, moderate inflation reduces the likelihood of revolution, whereas negative inflation values again increase revolutionary activity. At the same time, many researcherssuggest to treatseparately ...
Added: August 29, 2024
Илья Сумерников, Андрей Уфимцев, Slav M. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2024 Т. 23 № 1 С. 302–356
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the number of empirical studies devoted to the analysis of factors influencing the risks of terrorist activity has increased significantly. At the same time, estimates of the impact of individual factors may differ in different studies, which is why there is a need for a generalizing work in ...
Added: April 1, 2024
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2023 Т. 110 № 3 С. 149–171
The article presents a systematic review of the results of testing the political factors of revolutionary destabilization in the works attributed by the authors to the fifth generation of studies of revolutions. It is shown that, according to quantitative cross-national studies conducted to date, the same political factors can have different effects on the likelihood ...
Added: November 13, 2023
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Социология власти 2023 Т. 35 № 1 С. 118–159
There are certain grounds for asserting that the fifth generation of revolution theories is being formed in the 21st century. The main distinguishing features of the new generation of theories of revolution, apparently, are the reliance on global databases of revolutionary events, the widespread use of modern methods of quantitative analysis, as well as the ...
Added: August 8, 2023
Егорова А. И., Chepurenko A., Российский журнал менеджмента 2022 Т. 20 № 2 С. 172–197
Goal: this article analyzes the impact of a number of factors of a different nature on the financial and economic “resilience” of the business of Russian small entrepreneurs during the period of external shocks (Pandemic, situation across Ukraine).
Methodology: the empirical base of the papers consist of the data of five waves of small business longitudinal ...
Added: May 28, 2023
ЛЕНАНД, 2021.
В центре внимания данной книги находится афразийская макрозона нестабильности, простирающаяся от Сахеля (т. е. африканских стран, расположенных непосредственно к югу от Сахары) через Северную Африку, Ближний и Средний Восток до постсоветской Центральной Азии. С другой стороны, для понимания закономерностей дестабилизационных процессов в этой макрозоне требуется уточнить общие закономерности возникновения социально-политической нестабильности и революций. Разработка же ...
Added: January 12, 2022
Khokhlov N., Васильев А. М., Беличенко А. А. et al., Международные процессы 2021 Т. 19 № 2 С. 21–49
Our analysis allows us to talk about two waves of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe. The first wave was observed in 2011 and was expressed in the explosive growth of mainly peaceful protests. Taking into account the data on the direct impact of the events of the Arab Spring on the ...
Added: August 24, 2021
Vaskin I., Журнал исследований социальной политики 2020 Т. 18 № 2 С. 313–330
Статья посвящена роли поддержки инкумбента на президентских выборах в финансировании регионов в опекунских режимах на примере Ирана 2005–2013 гг. Данные включают 242 наблюдения по 31 регионам за восемь лет. Исследование основано на теориях поддержки ядерного электората и теории колеблющихся избирателей. В статье проанализирована трансформация распределительной политики в Иране до 2013 г. В результате корреляционного и регрессионного анализа выявлено, что между электоральной поддержкой инкумбента на президентских выборах и выдачей краткосрочных кредитов регионам существует ...
Added: June 28, 2020
Korotayev A., Vaskin I., Tsirel S. V., Terrorism and Political Violence 2021 Vol. 33 No. 3 P. 572–595
The performed cross-national tests with negative binomial regression models support the presence of a curvilinear relationship between the quantitative expansion of education (measured with mean years of schooling) and terrorist attack intensity. Growth of schooling in the least educationally developed countries is associated with a significant ten- dency towards the growth of terrorist attack intensity. ...
Added: November 19, 2019
Korotayev A., Shishkina A., Cross-Cultural Research 2020 Vol. 54 No. 2-3 P. 296–318
The article analyzes relative deprivation as a possible factor of sociopolitical instability during the Arab Spring events using the methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis. In this case, relative deprivation is operationalized in two ways: (a) through the indicator of subjective feeling of happiness on the eve of the events of the Arab Spring, ...
Added: November 7, 2019
Korotayev A., Meshcherina K., Слинько Е. В. et al., Восток. Афро-азиатские общества: история и современность 2019 № 1 С. 122–154
The article considers the value orientations of the Afrasian zone of instability on the basis of two gender dimensions: dimension of gender power and economic gender dimension. The authors include in the Afrasian zone of instability the Middle East (including North Africa) all the Big Middle East (including Central Asia and Pakistan), as well as ...
Added: November 15, 2018
Садовничий В. А., Akaev A., Korotayev A. et al., М.: Издательская группа URSS, 2016.
Целью исследований, результаты которых представлены в данной монографии, является разработка научно-методического аппарата для учета развития науки и образования, человеческого капитала при моделировании и прогнозировании мировой и региональной динамики. В монографии представлены математические модели для анализа и прогноза социально-экономической и технологической мировой и региональной динамики с учетом развития науки, образования и НИОКР, предложения по использованию этих моделей в стратегическом планировании ...
Added: October 27, 2018
Korotayev A., Юрьев С. Е., Восток. Афро-азиатские общества: история и современность 2018 № 1 С. 65–79
In this article, we consider the current developments in the educational systems of the Arab world using quantitative data for the period from 1980 to 2014. Building upon our analysis we can distinguish four major periods of educational expansion in the Arab world between 1980 and 2014: (1) the 1980s – the most substantial expansion, ...
Added: October 13, 2018
Korotayev A., Meshcherina K., Каткова В. Э., Азия и Африка сегодня 2019 Т. 738 № 1 С. 17–24
It is shown that the Arab Spring acted as a trigger for a global wave of socio-political destabilization, which significantly exceeded the scale of the Arab Spring itself and affected absolutely all the World System zones. However, this global destabilization wave manifested itself in different World System zones in different ways and not entirely simultaneously.
The ...
Added: September 22, 2018