Связь между уровнями смертности и экономического развития в России и ее регионах

Демографическое обозрение. 2018. Т. 5. № 1. С. 6–24.

Andreev E. M., Shkolnikov V.

Usually in rich countries life expectancy is higher than in poor countries. We checked whether this is true for the regions of Russia.

The object of the study was data for 2010, which is the year of the last population census. We used life expectancy at birth as longevity measure and the value of gross domestic product per capita in US dollars at purchasing power parity is used as the welfare measure.

The analysis is based on a comparison of regional data with the Preston curve that describes relationship between per capita GDP and life expectancy at birth. The curve was also determined for 2010 based on data from 57 countries, where population statistics are suitable for the calculation of life table.

We found that life expectancy in Russia is substantially below the level that the Preston's model predicts for Russian on the basis of the Russia’s GDP per capita. In 2010, the difference between the model and real life expectancy was 8.7 years and was the highest among the 57 countries involved in the calculation.

The dependence of life expectancy on economic situation in regions is practically nonexistent. The illusion of interdependence exists because Moscow stands out among other regions with high GDP and high life expectancy. However life expectancy in 2010 in Moscow was significantly lower than the level predicted by the Preston's model. In authors; opinion, the lack of communication is explained by the fact that in regions with high GDP, the level of economic inequality is also high. High incomes of a small part of the population can raise the average level of economic indicators in the region, but a lower mortality in a small group has little effect on life expectancy of total population.

Keywords: валовой внутренний продукт, life expectancy, продолжительность жизни, регионы России, экономическое неравенство, regions of Russia, Gross Domestic Product, economic inequality, неравенство в смертности, Preston's curve, inequality in mortality, кривая Престона