КНР И "ТРЕТЬЯ СТРАТЕГИЯ КОМПЕНСАЦИИ" МИНИСТЕРСТВА ОБОРОНЫ США

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 25: Международные отношения и мировая политика. 2016. Т. 8. № 3. С. 52–71.

Kashin V.

The Third Offset Strategy (TOS), meant to ensure the military superiority of the United States over potential adversaries in an austere budgetary environment, might become one of the most important strategic initiatives of the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) since the end of the Cold War. This paper examines Chinese reaction and possible responses to the TOS. The first section shows that the Chinese experts are generally skeptical about the possibility of the TOS achieving its stated objective of restoring the U.S. military superiority over China in the Asia-Pacific but examine closely all technological aspects of this initiative. The second section outlines the key programs of modernization of high-technology industries and the People’s Liberation Army, launched in the PRC in recent years against the backdrop of the U.S. DOD initiatives which provided a basis for the TOS. The author comes to the conclusion that, first, the PRC will channel considerable resources to those fields of science and technology development that are considered priority within the TOS. Second, China will continue to build on asymmetrical advantages, resulting from the country’s geographical location, particularly, increase its ability to conduct precision conventional strikes against the U.S. military facilities in the Asia-Pacific. Third, there will likely be an increase in the Chinese investments in the development of strategic nuclear forces to maintain its capacity for a retaliatory nuclear strike in the face of deployment of the U.S. anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense systems, reconnaissance assets, and precision conventional weapons in the Asia Pacific.

Keywords: США, USA, инновационные технологии, China, КНР, сдерживание, противоракетная оборона, deterrence, People's Liberation Army, nuclear triad, airsea battle, strategic nuclear forces, innovative techologies, anti-access/area-denial, народно-освободительная армия китая, стратегические ядерные силы, ядерная триада, блокировка доступа, воздушно-морское сражение