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Analysis of Consensus-Building Time in Social Groups Based on the Results of Statistical Modeling
If you want to make beautiful music,
you must play the black and the white notes together.
Richard M. Nixon, the 37th President of USA
The problem of studying the achievement of consensus in social groups is related to the complexity of organizing such a study, especially for large groups, with more than five participants. In connection with the above, it is advisable to investigate the phenomenon of consensus in large social groups, using the modeling methodology.
The article presents the results of statistical modeling describing the dependence of the time to reach consensus on the number and authoritarianism of a social group members using two mathematical models of consensus achievement in a group based on the model proposed by DeGroot and model of the cellular automaton.
The main problems of attaining consensus under the settings of the proposed model during the development of consensus standards in technical committees on standardization were analyzed. It is shown that an increase in the number of social group members and their authoritarianism has an adverse impact on the time for reaching consensus and increases the disunity of the group.
A model of the cellular automaton modeling the achievement of consensus within the negotiation process has been were studied: the initial discrepancy between the opinions of the members of the group and the space of opinions of the members of the group. In particular, it is shown that if initially the views of the members of the group are radically different, then the process of reaching consensus will be as long as possible if one of the participants is absolutely authoritative. If initially the views of the members of the group are close, then the process of reaching consensus will also be as long as possible if both members of the group are absolutely compromise.