Модельные расчеты краткосрочных прогнозов социально-экономических показателей РФ

М. Турунцева; Е. Астафьева; Баева М.; Божечкова А.; Бузаев А.; Киблицкая Т.; Пономарев Ю.; Скроботов А.

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Модельные расчеты краткосрочных прогнозов социально-экономических показателей РФ

Научный вестник ИЭП им. Гайдара.ру (электронный журнал). 2017. Т. 112. № 6. С. 3–33.

М. Турунцева, Е. Астафьева, Баева М., Божечкова А., Бузаев А., Киблицкая Т., Пономарев Ю., Скроботов А.

Research target: Mathematics

Priority areas: economics

Language: Russian

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Keywords: временные ряды прогнозирование социально-экономические показатели

2-Elliptic Periodic Orbits near a Nonsimple Homoclinic Tangency in Four-Dimensional Symplectic Maps

Lerman L. M., Turaev D. V., Regular and Chaotic Dynamics 2026 Vol. 31 No. 3 P. 349–369

We show that bifurcations of four-dimensional symplectic diffeomorphisms with a quadratic homoclinic tangency to a saddle periodic orbit with real multipliers produce 2-elliptic periodic orbits if the tangency is not partially hyperbolic. We show that a normal form for the rescaled first-return maps near such tangency is given by a four-dimensional symplectic H´enonlike map and study bifurcations of the ...

Added: May 15, 2026

Bibliometric Analysis by Network Models

Aleskerov F. T., Yakuba V. I., Khutorskaya O. et al., Springer, 2026.

The book contains new models of bibliometric analysis based on centrality measures in network analysis, pattern analysis and stability analysis. A distinctive feature of these centrality measures is that they account for the parameters of vertices and group influence of vertices to a vertex. This reveals specific groups of publications, authors, terms, journals and affiliations ...

Added: May 15, 2026

Neural-network maps for two-parameter modeling of bistability and codimension-two bifurcations in two-dimensional flow dynamical systems

Kuptsov P., Panyushev A., Stankevich N., Chaos 2026 Vol. 36 No. 5 Article 053138

We develop a machine-learning approach to reproduce the behavior of two versions of the van der Pol oscillator exhibiting a subcritical Andronov–Hopf bifurcation, with or without a codimension-2 Bautin point. We construct a neural-network model that functions as a recur rent map and train it on short segments of oscillator trajectories. The results show that, ...

Added: May 15, 2026

Bifurcations and Structural Stability of Generic PC-HC Families

Dorovskiy A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.

In this paper the structural stability of generic families of vector fields of the PC-HC class on the two-dimensional sphere is proved. A classification of these families up to moderate equivalence in neighborhoods of their large bifurcation supports is presented, based on such invariants as the configuration and the characteristic set. The realization lemma is proved. ...

Added: May 14, 2026

The Sobolev space W_2^{1/2}: Simultaneous improvement of functions by a homeomorphism of the circle

Lebedev V., Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 2026 Vol. 563 No. 2 Article 130787

It is known that for every continuous real-valued function $f$ on the circle $\mathbb T=\mathbb R/2\pi\mathbb Z$ there exists a change of variable, i.e., a self-homeomorphism $h$ of $\mathbb T$, such that the superposition $f\circ h$ is in the Sobolev space $W_2^{1/2}(\mathbb T)$. We obtain new results on simultaneous improvement of functions by a single change of variable in relation ...

Added: May 14, 2026

Symmetric Cubic Polynomials

Blokh A., Oversteegen L., Selinger N. et al., Arnold Mathematical Journal 2025 Vol. 12 No. 1 P. 1–40

We describe a model for the boundary of the connectedness locus of the parameter space of cubic symmetric polynomials. We show that there exists a monotone continuous function from the connectedness locus to the model which is a homeomorphism if the former is locally connected. ...

Added: May 13, 2026

Игры на сетях с линейным наилучшим ответом: модели и методы управления

Petrov I., Автоматика и телемеханика 2026 № 6 С. 82–118

Системам связанных агентов и сетевому управлению посвящено большое число отечественных и зарубежных исследований. Исторически, наибольший интерес в теории управления возникал к усредняющим системам и, в частности, к задаче консенсуса. Однако сетевое взаимодействие может характеризоваться более специфическими функциями, отражающими зависимость от действий соседей по сети, что особенно явно проявляется в моделях стратегического взаимодействия на сети, которое ...

Added: May 12, 2026

Архимед: научно-методический сборник

М.: ООО «Макс Пресс», 2026.

В настоящем сборнике представлены тезисы докладов участников семинара "Интеграция основного и дополнительного физико-математического образования", проходившего 11 февраля 2026 года в ГБОУ Школа №2007 ФМШ г. москвы, а также другие публикации, посвящённые вопросам дополнительного физико-математического образования. ...

Added: May 11, 2026

A two-point phase recovering from holographic data on a single plane

Novikov R., Sivkin V., Inverse Problems 2026 Vol. 42 No. 4 Article 045009

We consider a plane wave, a radiation solution, and the sum of these solutions (total solution) for the Helmholtz equation in an exterior region in Rd, d ⩾ 2. In this region, we consider a hyperplane X with sufficiently large distance s from the origin in Rd. We give two-point local formulas for approximate recovering the radiation ...

Added: May 11, 2026

Multivariate Newton interpolation in downward closed spaces reaches the optimal Bernstein–Walsh approximation rate

Hecht M., Hofmann P., Wicaksono D. et al., IMA Journal of Numerical Analysis 2026 Vol. 00 P. 1–30

Recent advances in Bernstein—Walsh theory have extended Bernstein’s Theorem to multiple dimensions, stating that a multivariate function can be approximated with a geometric rate in a downward-closed polynomial space if and only if it is analytic in a generalized Bernstein polyellipse. To compute approximations of this class of functions—which we term Bos–Levenberg–Trefethen–(BLT) functions—we extend the ...

Added: May 11, 2026

Weighted Chernoff Information and Optimal Loss Exponent in Context-Sensitive Hypothesis Testing

Kelbert M., Kalimulina E. Y., Entropy 2026 Vol. 28 Article 536

We study binary hypothesis testing for i.i.d. observations under a multiplicative context weight. For the optimal weighted total loss, defined as the sum of weighted type-I and typeII losses, we prove the logarithmic asymptotic L∗n = exp{−nDwC (P,Q) + o(n)}, n →∞, where Dw C is the weighted Chernoff information. The single-letter form of the exponent relies on ...

Added: May 7, 2026

Calogero–Sutherland hyperbolic system and Heckman–Opdam $$\mathfrak {gl}_n$$ gl n hypergeometric function

Белоусов Н. М., Черепанов Л. К., Деркачов С. Э. et al., Selecta Mathematica, New Series 2026 Vol. 32 Article 44

We prove equivalence of two integral representations for the wave functions of hyperbolic Calogero–Sutherland system. For this we study two families of Baxter operators related to hyperbolic Calogero–Sutherland and rational Ruijsenaars models; the first one as a limit from hyperbolic Ruijsenaars system, while the second one independently. Besides, computing asymptotics of integral representations and also ...

Added: May 6, 2026

Hodge Laplacian Eigenvalues on Surfaces with Boundary

Муравьев М. Ю., Annales Mathematiques du Quebec 2025

Recently Rohleder proposed a new variational approach to an inequality between the Neumann and Dirichlet eigenvalues in the simply connected planar case using the language of classical vector analysis. Interpreting his approach in terms of differential forms permits to generalize these results to a much broader context. The spectrum of the absolute boundary problem for ...

Added: May 6, 2026

Об изоморфизме задачи Козлова о движении ферромагнетика в магнитном поле и задачи Шоттки о движении четырехмерного твердого тела

Цыганов А. В., Порубов Е. О., Теоретическая и математическая физика 2026 Т. 227 № 2 С. 336–355

Теория тензорных инвариантов обыкновенных дифференциальных уравнений и классификация Картана простых алгебр Ли используется для установления изоморфизма задачи Козлова о движении ферромагнетика в магнитном поле и задачи Шоттки о движении четырехмерного твердого тела. Найдены новые полиномиальные и рациональные бивекторы Пуассона, инвариантные либо относительно пары коммутирующих фазовых потоков, либо относительно одного из пары потоков. ...

Added: May 5, 2026

Моделирование и оценка ресурсных затрат алгоритмов маршрутизации в сетях на кристалле с двумерной циркулянтной топологией

Монахова Э. А., Монахов О. Г., Rzaev E. et al., Прикладная дискретная математика 2026 Т. 71 С. 112–127

В настоящей работе исследовано совместное конструирование топологий семейств оптимальных по диаметру циркулянтных сетей $C(N; \pm 1, \pm s_2)$ и реализуемых для них оптимальных алгоритмов маршрутизации сложности $O(1)$. Предлагаемый алгоритм маршрутизации основан на использовании масштабируемых параметров $L$-образных шаблонов плотной укладки графов на плоскости для семейств оптимальных сетей. Определены аналитические формулы зависимости этих параметров от диаметра графов семейств ...

Added: May 4, 2026

On Undecidability Degree of Theory of Figures in Countable and Uncountable Linear Spaces

Dudakov S., Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics 2025 Vol. 46 No. 12 P. 6092–6102

We study the additive theory of arbitrary ﬁgures in linear spaces, that is, the theory of addition extended to sets of vectors. Our main result is the following: if a linear space is inﬁnite, then the additive theory of ﬁgures admits interpreting second-order arithmetic and, therefore, it has such or higher degree of undecidability. For countably inﬁnite spaces, ...

Added: May 1, 2026

Современные методы анализа временных рядов в мониторинге и прогнозировании состояния оборудования для механизированной добычи

Glushko A., Neznanov A., Овчинников С. et al., В кн.: Интеллектуальный анализ данных в нефтегазовой отрасли.: М.: ООО «Геомодель Развитие», 2024. С. 140–143.

With the development of monitoring systems, now we have the opportunity to collect key performance indicators of devices in the process of artificial lift. Every day a huge amount of telemetry is generated by our devices, which can be used to forecast the working mode and health state of the equipment after the process of ...

Added: April 29, 2026

Перспективы медиа-мониторинга в исследованиях общественного мнения (на примере доверия президенту)

Ankudinov I., Социология: методология, методы, математическое моделирование 2025 № 61 С. 165–203

The changing political mood of Russians is a constant subject of interest for sociological agencies. With the development of the Internet, conventional questionnaire research began to be supplemented by online surveys and, despite some skepticism, by social media mining. This article attempts to adjust an accidental web-sample so as to bring its estimates closer to ...

Added: April 22, 2026

Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences

Ustyuzhanin V., / Series Econometrics "arxiv". 2026.

This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...

Added: April 3, 2026

Загадка внутренней мотивации

Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.

This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...

Added: March 15, 2026

Online Neural Networks for Change-Point Detection

Hushchyn M., Arzymatov K., Derkach D., Machine Learning 2026 Vol. 115 Article 56

Moments when a time series changes its behavior are called change points. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two change-point detection approaches based on neural networks and online learning. These algorithms demonstrate linear ...

Added: March 6, 2026

НЕВРОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ СИМПТОМЫ У ДЕТЕЙ С ДЕБЮТОМ ИШЕМИЧЕСКОГО ИНСУЛЬТА В РАННЕМ ВОЗРАСТЕ: ПРОСПЕКТИВНОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ

Троцкая И. А., Львова О. А., Короткова Е. В. et al., В кн.: Медицинское образование, наука, практика : Сборник статей X Международной научно-практической конференции молодых ученых и студентов, 22-23 апреля 2025 г. Т.2.: Екатеринбург: ФГБОУ ВО УГМУ Минздрава России, 2025. С. 673–679.

Pediatric ischemic stroke is considered to be a rare condition. Correct recognition of the acute symptoms and further monitoring of the dynamics of them may allow predicting the child's development and further adaptation. The aim of the study was to provide clinical and imaging features of the acute period of ischemic stroke with debut at an ...

Added: March 2, 2026

Анализ развития рынка дизельного топлива в Российской Федерации

Карелина М. Г., Mkhitarian V., Финансы и бизнес 2025 Т. 21 № 4 С. 49–65

Дизельное топливо играет важную роль в российской экономике, его значимость обусловлена высокой эффективностью, экономичностью, надежностью и широким спектром применения. Россия один из крупнейших вмире экспортеров дизельного топлива, что обеспечивает значительные поступления в бюджет страны и является геополитическим инструментом в рамках глобальных трансформационных процессов. Статистическая оценка развития российского рынка дизельного топлива в представленной работе проводилась в ...

Added: February 20, 2026

Up and Down the Mount Stupid: An Emotional Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.

In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...

Added: February 11, 2026