Кибернетическая революция и исторический процесс (технологии будущего в свете теории производственных революций)

Философия и общество. 2015. № 1. С. 17–47.

Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л.

The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors thoroughly study the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Cybernetic’. There are given some forecasts about its development in the nearest five decades. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution and the initial transition to the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). Then, a convergence of innovative and cognitive technologies will start and this will form a complex of MBNRIC technologies (that is a complex of medical, biological and nanotechnologies, robotics, information and cognitive technologies, named after the initial letters of the names of these technologies). By the example of the development of future medical technologies which also involve achievements in other innovative technologies, the authors give a detailed analysis of the future breakthroughs in terms of the development of self-regulating systems with their growing ability to select optimal modes of functioning as well as of other characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution (resources and energy saving, miniaturization, and individualization).

Keywords: информационные технологии, Information technologies, нанотехнология, миниатюризация, индивидуализация, nanotechnologies, генная инженерия, individualization, medicine, кибернетическая революция, производственная революция, biotechnologies, genetic engineering, биотехнология, самоуправляемые системы, Cybernetic Revolution, self-regulating systems, productive revolution, cyborgization, киборгизация, медицина