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The Application of Conflict Measure to Estimating Incoherence of Analyst's Forecasts about the Cost of Shares of Russian Companies
Procedia Computer Science. 2015. Vol. 55. P. 1113-1122.
This paper is devoted to modern approaches to the estimation of external conflict in the theory of evidence based on axioms. The conflict measure is defined on the set of beliefs obtained from several sources of information. It is shown that the conflict measure should be a monotone set function with respect to sets of beliefs. Some robust procedures for evaluation of conflict measure that are stable to small changes in evidences are introduced and discussed. The analysis of conflict among forecasts about the value of shares of Russian companies of investment banks is presented. In this analysis the conflict measure estimates inconsistency of recommendations of investment banks, while the Shapley values of this measure on the set of evidences characterize the contribution of each investment bank to the overall conflict. The relationship between conflict and precision of forecasts is also investigated.
Keywords: финансовый аналитикShapley valueвектор Шеплимера конфликтаconflict measurebelief functionanalysts forecast
Publication based on the results of:
Bronevich A., Penikas H. I., Lepskiy A. et al., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP7 "Математические методы анализа решений в экономике, бизнесе и политике". 2015. № 10.
There is one of the investment strategies on a stock market called a choice of securities including
its buying and sale based on financial analysts’ recommendations. The distinguishing characteristic of
these recommendations is that in each of it for the same securities there can be different recommendations
(«Buy», «Sell», «Hold») as well as for one type of recommendations ...
Added: December 2, 2015
Karpov A. V., / Kyoto institute of economic research, Kyoto University. Series 896 "KIER Discussion paper series". 2014. No. 896.
This paper provides an example of sole apparentement (coalition) that leads to unlimited seat losses. The necessary and sufficient condition of the lack of successful apparentements is discovered. A precise description of an apparentement-proof set is recognized. The probability of the lack of successful apparentement is evaluated. A game-theoretical approach for apparentement formation is applied. ...
Added: June 20, 2014
Karpov A. V., Mathematical Social Sciences 2015 Vol. 74 P. 1-7
This paper studies the incentives for alliance (coalition) formation. It provides an example of an alliance
that leads to unlimited seat gains. A full description of a set that guarantees the lack of successful alliance
is found. The probability of the lack of successful alliances is evaluated. A game-theoretical approach for
alliance formation is applied. ...
Added: January 11, 2015
Antipov E. A., Pokryshevskaya E. B., Economics Bulletin 2014 Vol. 34 No. 4 P. 2368-2376
In this study we demonstrate how publicly available data can be used to work out the indirect importance of various hotel attributes for their visitors. We apply Shapley value decomposition of the recommendation rate to compute the percentage contributions of various attributes to the overall loyalty, which helps us explain why some of Cyprus hotels ...
Added: March 24, 2015
Pokryshevskaya E. B., Antipov E. A., Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing 2012
Measuring indirect importance of various attributes is a very common task in marketing analysis for which researchers use correlation and regression techniques. We have listed and illustrated some common problems with widely used latent importance measures. A more theoretically sound approach – the Shapley Value decomposition – was applied to a rich data set of ...
Added: October 4, 2012
Antipov E. A., Pokryshevskaya E. B., Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management 2020 No. 19 P. 355-364
Forecasting demand and understanding sales drivers are one of the most important tasks in retail analytics. However, traditionally, linear models and/or models with a small number of predictors have been predominantly used in sales modeling. Taking into account that real-world demand is naturally determined by complex substitution and complementation patterns among a large number of ...
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Pokryshevskaya E. B., Antipov E. A., Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing 2012 Vol. 20 No. 3-4 P. 203-211
Measuring indirect importance of various attributes is a very common task in marketing analysis for which researchers use correlation and regression techniques. We have listed and illustrated some common problems with widely used latent importance measures. A more theoretically sound approach - the Shapley Value decomposition - was applied to a rich data set of ...
Added: February 4, 2013
Importance-performance analysis for internet stores: a system based on publicly available panel data
Pokryshevskaya E. B., Antipov E. A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series MAN "Management". 2013. No. WP BRP 08/MAN/2013.
We demonstrate how publicly available ratings of Internet stores can be used to perform actionable importance-performance analysis (IPA). We use a panel of 422 non-food online merchants, which allows us to account for store-specific effects, and therefore obtain better estimates of each attribute’s influence on purchase intention. Our approach is economical, as merchants do not ...
Added: May 15, 2013
Smirnova N., Тарашнина С. И., TOP 2017
We investigate a new solution concept of a TU-game --- the $\alpha$-prenucleoli set. For an arbitrary $3$-person TU-game we construct analytical formulas for calculating the considered solution. Since the $\alpha$-prenucleoli set always contains the pre\-nucleolus and the $SM$-nucleolus the analytical formulas for calculating these solution concepts have also been verified. ...
Added: October 17, 2016
Bronevich A., Lepskiy A., Penikas H. I., , in : Procedia Computer Science. 3rd International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management, ITQM 2015. Vol. Volume 55.: Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2015. P. 1113-1122.
This paper is devoted to modern approaches to the estimation of external conflict in the theory of evidence based on axioms. The conflict measure is defined on the set of beliefs obtained from several sources of information. It is shown that the conflict measure should be a monotone set function with respect to sets of ...
Added: May 12, 2016
Pilnik N., Pospelov I. G., Radionov S., Вестник АКСОР 2017 Т. 43 № 3-4 С. 71-78
In this article we consider the issues of preparing statistical data for using in applied macroeconomic models, based on balance equalities. We propose a description of every macroeconomic agent, which consists of four balances of different kind. The described construction is filled with statistical data, which describes the condition of main sectors of Russian economy, ...
Added: November 26, 2017
Smirnov S. V., Balashova E., Posvianskaia L., Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
Ивлиев С. В., Penikas H. I., Экономика и управление: проблемы, решения 2016 Т. 2 № 8 С. 247-252
Под эгидой Гильдии финансовых аналитиков и риск-менеджеров и Русского общества управления рисками разработан новый профессиональный стандарт «Специалист по управлению финансовыми рисками», который предназначен для оценки квалификации риск-менеджеров. В статье описываются предпосылки создания и краткое содержание стандарта с целью его популяризации. ...
Added: September 5, 2016
Safonov G., Галенович А., Федоров Ю. Н., Энергия: экономика, техника, экология 2012 № 5 С. 37-39
The article discusses the potential role of Russia in global carbon markets, prospects and opportunities for national businesses in greenhouse gas emission reduction ...
Added: July 20, 2016
Neretina Ekaterina, Neretina E., Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics 2013 Vol. 3 No. 1 P. 65-76
The last market crash of 2008-2009 showed that the construction sphere is one of the most fragile subject to the crisis effect. The destructive effect of this crash resulted in substantial decrease in mortgage lending, price index, capital investment, and in growth of the cost level. As the construction industry remains strategically important, the eruption ...
Added: September 5, 2013
Polishchuk L., Natkhov T., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2017 № № 3(35) С. 12-32
We discuss the evolving views on institutions and development in modern political economy, and in particular the contribution to the field by D. Acemoglu and J. Robinson, explaining root causes of successes and failures in economic development. The focus of discussion is on inclusive and extractive institutional regimes — the former sustain economic growth, whereas ...
Added: October 23, 2017
Larchenko L. V., Колесников Р. А., Инновации 2016 № 1 С. 79-84
Предмет/тема. В статье показано, что основной проблемой социально-экономического развития монопрофильных городов Ямало-Ненецкого автономного округа является узкая специализация хозяйства, основанная на эксплуатации нефтегазовых ресурсов. Методология. Методологической базой для достижения поставленных в статье целей выступают системный подход и статистические методы анализа. Результаты. Исследование проведено на примере городов Ноябрьск, Муравленко, Губкинский, являющиеся центрами добычи углеводородов. В исследуемых городах ...
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Kuchmaeva O., Население и экономика 2018 Т. 2 № 4 С. 47-84
Статья посвящена анализу масштабов и видов социальной активности пожилых россиян. Актуальность данной проблемы обусловлена масштабами демографического старения, ставшего уже предметом целенаправленной социальной политики в России и странах мира. Реализуя Международный план действий по проблемам старения, в частности, в рамках Стратегии действий в интересах граждан старшего поколения в Российской
Федерации до 2025 г., важно понимать, насколько сейчас ...
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Surinov A., М. : Юрайт, 2018
В учебнике рассматриваются вопросы использования официальной статистики для эффективной организации страхового дела. Подробно описаны существующая система сбора экономической информации о страховой деятельности и показатели, ее характеризующие. В качестве самостоятельного раздела выделена глава, посвященная отражению страхования в национальных счетах. В учебнике описаны такие сферы статистических наблюдений, как статистика предпринимательства, статистика цен, демографическая статистика, статистика труда, статистика ...
Added: September 28, 2018
Terentyev A. A., Korobova N., М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2015
Sustainable development declared at the World Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, gradually became a landmark of economic policy for numerous leading countries of the world. This initiative belongs not only to the governments but also to the private sector in the form of big companies that wish to demonstrate their sustainability and reliability ...
Added: October 19, 2015
Parshakov P., Shakina E., Barajas A., Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 2022 Vol. 35 No. 1 P. 122-142
This article contributes to the development of contestable market theory by investigating how competitiveness in the eSports industry influences the size of this industry, as measured by the volume of monetary prizes. We use data on each gamer's prize earnings for each tournament from 1999 to 2015 to estimate panel vector autoregression (VAR) model with ...
Added: April 22, 2021
М. : КноРус, 2012
Представлена экономическая оценка природно-ресурсного потенциала РФ, рассмотрены закономерности размещения природных ресурсов и основные особенности экологической ситуации в регионах страны, описано влияние экологических факторов на демографический потенциал и здоровье населения, приведена характеристика основных загрязнителей окружающей среды, изложены основы природно-ресурсной политики России и хозяйственный механизм ее осуществления, раскрыты региональные различия современной экологической обстановки в стране и тенденции ...
Added: March 10, 2013
Chulok A., Slobodianik S., Moiseichev E. Y., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 511-527
Purpose
This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.
Design/methodology/approach
Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on ...
Added: October 3, 2017
М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2014
В сборнике рассматриваются теоретические и практические проблемы взаимодействия человека, техносферы и биосферы, а также преодоления антропогенной деградации биосферы.
Для научных работников, специалистов, преподавателей и аспирантов. ...
Added: October 22, 2014