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A Binary Model Versus Discriminant Analysis to Corporate Bankruptcies for Emerging Market
SSRN Working Papers. 2012.
The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since publishing of the major Altman’s work (1968), based on multiple discriminant analysis, this methodological area has been considerably changed. Taking into consideration that new data have appeared in the course of time, companies’ average size has changed and the accounting standards have been changed (Altman (1977)) methods and models should be renewed to be appropriate for the present day situation.
The purpose of this investigation is the revealing of factors causing bankruptcy and using models appropriate for prediction bankruptcy in the area of a construction industry during financial crisis.
This investigation has been carried out on the basis of logit and probit analysis. The main reasons of bankruptcy revealed in the course of this investigation are the following:
• non-optimal capital structure formation
• ineffective liquidity management
• decrease in assets profitability
• decrease in short-term assets turnover
The most reliable indicators, which give warning of bankruptcy ahead of others are financial instability and liquidity ratios.
Lashkevich Y., Zelenkov Y., IEEE Access 2025 Vol. 14 P. 20084–20099
Added: May 3, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., / Series Econometrics "arxiv". 2026.
This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...
Added: April 3, 2026
Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
Added: March 15, 2026
Elizaveta Lashkevich, Zelenkov Y., IEEE Access 2026 Vol. 14 P. 20084–20099
While machine learning models have achieved high accuracy in predicting firm financial failure (FFF), they often function as “closed boxes” that fail to provide actionable guidance for decision-makers. Existing counterfactual explanation methods typically operate in the space of financial ratios (FR), neglecting fundamental accounting identities and implementation costs, thereby producing recommendations that are theoretically valid ...
Added: February 20, 2026
Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
Added: February 11, 2026
Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
Added: February 10, 2026
Antsygina A., Teteryatnikova M., Tremewan J. C. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2025.
Many competitive environments allow for a third party to be indirectly involved by supporting one or both sides in the conflict. Such support can come from trade partners, colleagues, or allies, who can in turn benefit from a supported party's success. We use theory and an experiment to investigate how support relationships develop endogenously in ...
Added: January 31, 2026
Akhmedova A., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
The study explores a psychological phenomenon of inaction inertia-avoiding action after missing a more favourable opportunity. Unlike action inertia (e.g.,sunk costs effect), inaction inertia has been less studied, particularly in economic contexts. Considering the reference dependent nature of the phenomenon, I build on the work of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to examine how past experiences ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Ozhegova A., Зорина К. С., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 6108727". 2026.
Simplified tax regimes with explicit eligibility thresholds are a common tool which reduces tax burden but distorts firms’ behavior, creating local bunching just below the threshold. However, we show that when firms have access to business splitting their responses extend far beyond the local margin. Our model demonstrates that splitting reduces local bunching but amplifies ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Кумачева С. Ш., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5312100". 2025.
In recent years, an emerging body of empirical research has shown that tax audits, in addition to recovering unpaid taxes (direct effect), increase future tax compliance (indirect or dynamic effect). This literature also suggests that updating expectations induced by audit experience plays an important role in explaining this indirect effect. However, exactly how taxpayers form ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5277500". 2025.
While the emerging empirical literature shows that collateral tax sanctions (CTSs) - such as driver’s license suspensions or passport denials - appear to be effective instruments to enforce tax debt collection, there are still few theoretical arguments to explain why. In this paper, I model enforcement of tax debt collection and provide a new rationale for why it could ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Dobrynskaya V. V., Tomtosov A., Речмедина С., / NRU HSE. Series WP BRP 60/FE/2017 "SERIES: FINANCIAL ECONOMICS". 2025.
We study the application of factor investing in the market for real estate (REITs). The analysis of traditional factor strategies, such as momentum, value, size and profitability, reveals their unstable and atypical behavior in comparison to the equity market, however, there is a strong momentum effect in the factor strategies. We propose a new dynamic ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Besstremyannaya G., Bakshuk M., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
В данной статье рассматривается реакция российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности на ужесточение экономических санкций с акцентом на период после 2022 года. Хотя санкции в целом негативно сказываются на экономическом росте и эффективности деятельности компаний, есть некоторые свидетельства того, что они также могут подталкивать компании к инновациям, а негативный эффект преодолевается при помощи адаптации компании. Исследование заполняет ...
Added: December 31, 2025
Besstremyannaya G., Новикова В., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
Защита прав интеллектуальной собственности является движущей
силой для формирования стимулов инновационной активности
предприятий. Законодательное закрепление правил пользования
результатами интеллектуальной деятельности и обеспечение их соблюдения
позволяет поддерживать баланс интересов создателей и пользователей
интеллектуальной
собственности.
Целью
проанализировать недостаточно изученную для регионов России связь
между экономическим ростом и защитой прав интеллектуальной
собственности с использованием двухшаговой регрессии. Результаты
моделирования оказались неоднозначными, однако, было доказано наличие
значимой связи между защитой прав интеллектуальной ...
Added: December 31, 2025
Meissner D., Salati Marcondes de Moraes G. H., Brandão Fischer B. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2025. No. WP BRP /STI/2025.
Innovation has long been at the center of debates in economics, management, and organizational studies. However, innovation is never free of uncertainty and risk. Every act of innovation implies a departure from established paths and a willingness to embrace the unknown. From the beginning it's never clear if there is an audience which appreciates the ...
Added: November 28, 2025
Shchiptsova A., Obersteiner M., / Series General Economics "arxiv.org". 2025.
The addition of phosphorus, in the form of mineral fertilizer, becomes necessary in most agricultural soils in order to achieve consistent high yield levels of intensive farming and maintain soil fertility. Recent consolidation of phosphate fertilizer industry has transformed fragmented trade into a single integrated global network, where a small group of large-scale companies dominates ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Zelenkov Y., Бизнес-информатика 2025 Т. 19 № 3 С. 7–21
Most current bankruptcy prediction models are based on financial ratios, although their usage is not supported by formal theory and their interpretation is problematic. One of the prospects for improving the predictive models is the study of other firm performance measures, such as the data envelopment analysis (DEA) scores. However, this raises the problem of ...
Added: October 6, 2025
Zelenkov Y., Fedorova E., Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis 2022 Vol. 15 No. 1 P. 187–210
Many aspects of bankruptcy have not yet been thoroughly studied, among such issues are the causes that lead to bankruptcy at various stages of the company’s lifecycle. We hypothesize that the most significant factors in- fluencing the probability of company bankruptcy at a particular stage of its lifecycle are those the effectiveness of which is ...
Added: June 7, 2022
Zelenkov Y., Volodarskiy N., Expert Systems with Applications 2021 Vol. 185 Article 115559
The goal of the paper is to develop a new algorithm for predicting whether the company will go bankrupt on the base of unbalanced data. To do it, we propose to consider the classification as a multi-objective optimization problem and construct a prediction model as an ensemble while minimizing the parameters FPR (False Positive Rate) ...
Added: July 21, 2021
Nazarova V., Кошелев К., Finance Research Letters 2020 Vol. 36 P. 101454
The article focuses on models that can assess the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals by evaluating their synergistic effect. Such studies are much needed in the modern society, which is demonstrated by the current state of the market and various integration processes, which produce quite different results. We analyze M&A deals in developed ...
Added: October 31, 2020
Lipatnikov V. S., Удалова А. А., Регион: Экономика и Социология 2020 № 3(107) С. 242–269
The goal of the paper is to identify the impact of the model of financing based on escrow accounts on the costs of developers and purchasers of homes. The research includes an interview with a representative of a bank that provides credit finance for building companies. This interview helped to identify the typical structure of ...
Added: October 24, 2020
Serezhkina E., Morrison C., Cretu O., , in: Work and Labor Relations in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective.: L.: Routledge, 2021. Ch. 8 P. 155–182.
This chapter discusses the trends main institutional features and employment practices in the Russian construction sector. It focuses on recruitment, employment relations and work organization to understand their impact on the quality of the labor process and workers' well-being. The Russian construction sector, like construction elsewhere, employs a high proportion of migrant labor and employment ...
Added: January 20, 2020
L.: Routledge, 2021.
The need for a skilled, motivated and effective workforce is fundamental to the creation of the built environment across the world. Known in so many places for a tendency to informal and casual working practices, for the sometimes abusive use of migrant labor, for gendered male employment and for a neglect of the essentials of ...
Added: January 20, 2020
Rybalka A., Корпоративные финансы 2017 Т. 11 № 3 С. 79–99
In this paper, we have estimated the probability for default in large construction companies in Russia using the classic
method for this purpose – logistic regression. Our task incorporates testing corporate governance factors and analyzing
the predictive power of the model with regularization (Lasso and Ridge). For the dependent variable, we tested four
definitions of default and then ...
Added: October 17, 2017