«Движение 23 марта»: от зарождения до «второго пришествия»

Азия и Африка сегодня. 2026. № 4. С. 26–38.

Костелянец С. В., Денисова Т. С.

The M23 armed group’s resurgence in eastern DRC (2021–2026) has destabilized Central Africa and triggered a severe Kinshasa-Kigali crisis. This study explores the causes of M23’s return, its evolution into a quasi-state entity, and the failure of international conflict resolution. Based on UN and NGO reports, and applying the rebel governance framework, the analysis reveals that M23’s reorganization was driven by the failed integration of ex-rebels into the DRC army, shifting regional geopolitics, and direct Rwandan support.

The study finds that significant factors in M23’s reorganization included the failure of the policy to integrate former rebels into the army of the DRC, shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Great Lakes region, and direct military support from Rwanda. It is shown that having captured Goma and Bukavu, M23 has fundamentally changed its own nature. It now operates as an institutionalized political actor, establishing extensive administrative, judicial, and fiscal systems in controlled territories. Consequently, traditional “disarmament-demobilization-reintegration” peacekeeping initiatives have proven ineffective, as they fundamentally clash with the rebels’ established governance structures. The conflict has entered a qualitatively new phase: M23 will likely seek either regime change in Kinshasa or consolidated autonomy, making peaceful settlement prospects extremely uncertain.

Keywords: Африка, Africa, rebel governance, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Демократическая Республика Конго, March 23 Movement, Congo River Alliance, quasi-statehood, cross-border conflict, «Движение 23 марта», Альянс реки Конго, квазигосударственность, повстанческое управление, трансграничный конфликт

Publication based on the results of: From Antiquity to Modernity: Epistemology of the Development of Spiritual and Material Cultures in Non-Western Societies (2025)