Управление цепями поставок в кризисный период: новые требования к критериям и моделям

Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН. 2026. № 4.

Brodetskiy G., Gerami V., Gusev D., Kolik A., Shidlovskii I.

The article examines the transformation and new principles of managing international supply chains in the context of the shift from stable global development to an era of permanent turbulence. Successive crises (the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and sanctions confrontations) have revealed the systemic vulnerability of supply chains built on the paradigm of minimizing costs at the expense of reliability. The authors argue that the current instability is long-term, necessitating a change in the management paradigm.

The work analyzes the evolution of anti-crisis measures – from reactive to strategic – and substantiates the need for a transition to hybrid models that combine efficiency with the creation of strategic redundancy. Special attention is paid to the qualitative change in the structure of costs and risks, including the fragmentation of standards, the increase in cyber threats, and political-sanction risks. Authors point out that the transition to multi-criteria models and scenario modeling is difficult. The central conclusion is the requirement to develop new multi-criteria evaluation systems focused on resilience metrics, such as time to recovery, absorption capacity, and regulatory adaptability. The article confirms that the future of supply chain management lies in the dynamic search for an optimal compromise between efficiency and reliability using adaptive models capable of functioning in conditions of constant uncertainty.

Keywords: стабильность, управление цепями поставок, эффективность, цепи поставок, санкции, метрики, reliability, efficiency, надёжность, турбулентность, риски, risks, гибридные модели, hybrid models, supply chains, sanctions, supply chain management, turbulence, metrics, resilience