Прогнозирование основных геополитических рисков в Южной Азии

Век глобализации. 2026. № 1(57). С. 86–95.

Лебедев С. В., Novik N.

The article employs the concept of the Stability-Instability Paradox as a predictive model that allows to forecast the dynamics of geopolitical rivalry in South Asia. The above-mentioned concept predicts that the conflict of the two nucleararmed states will be characterized by stability at the strategic level due to the mutually assured destruction mechanism, while simultaneously tremendous instability at the substrategic level that will actively manifest via hybrid warfare. This article examines the dynamics of the geopolitical rivalry between India and Pakistan in the region of South Asia and highlights the qualitative shift in tools of confrontation that both parties started to employ after acquisition of nuclear weapons, namely, the reluctance to engage in full-scale military clashes and a clear preference for hybrid and proxy warfare. Capitalizing on these observations, the article forecasts the possible developments in the region and analyzes.

Keywords: ядерное оружие, геополитика, geopolitics, Nuclear weapons, geopolitical risks, геополитические риски, Южная Азия, ядерное сдерживание, Гибридные войны, hybrid warfare, nuclear deterrence, МТК «Север–Юг», International North– South Transport Corridor (INSTC)