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Двуслойные интервальные взвешенные графы в оценке рыночных рисков
Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2014. Т. 6. № 1. С. 159–166.
Dmitriev A., Марков Н. В.
This scientific work is dedicated to applying of two-layer interval weighted graphs in non-stationary time series forecasting and evaluation of market risks. The first layer of the graph, formed with the primary system training, displays potential system fluctuations at the time of system training. Interval vertexes of the second layer of the graph (the superstructure of the first layer) which display the degree of time series modeling error are connected with the first layer by edges. The proposed model has been approved by the 90-day forecast of steel billets. The average forecast error amounts 2,6% (it’s less than the average forecast error of the autoregression models).
Lola I. S., Asoskov D., Ursulenko V., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Настоящая работа посвящена сравнению эффективности классических эконометрических моделей и современных алгоритмов машинного и глубокого обучения для кратко- и среднесрочного прогнозирования качественных данных бизнес-опросов деловой активности обрабатывающих производств России. На основе данных за период с января 2010 г. по март 2026 г. было комплексно протестировано 10 различных подходов, включая классические модели ARIMA, VAR, ETS, алгоритм XGBoost ...
Added: September 21, 2026
Shabanov N., Kuricheva O., Kurbatova J. et al., / Series Working Papers SSRN "Department of Economics Ca’ Foscari University of Venice". 2026.
The carbon balance of an ecosystem is the difference between Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) as expressed by Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE). While remote sensing retrievals of GPP have reached maturity, Reco estimation remains underexplored and ultimately cast bias on NEE. Here we present an end-to-end multi-scale analysis of the mechanism of ...
Added: August 21, 2026
Астафьева Е.В., Турунцева М. Ю., Вестник Евразийской науки 2025 Т. 17 № 6
В работе исследуются возможности использования простых процедур корректировки и объединения прогнозов. Мы оцениваем влияние применения этих процедур (методов простой корректировки, простых и регрессионных методов комбинирования) на качество прогнозов показателей российского экспорта во все страны и импорта из всех стран. В общей сложности мы использовали четыре метода корректировки, 9 методов простого комбинирования и семь регрессионных методов. ...
Added: August 21, 2026
Ponomarenko A., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2025.
This paper addresses the challenge of merging hierarchical navigable small world (HNSW) graphs, a critical operation for distributed systems, incremental indexing, and database compaction. We propose three algorithms for this task: Naive Graph Merge (NGM), Intra Graph Traversal Merge (IGTM), and Cross Graph Traversal Merge (CGTM). These algorithms differ in their approach to vertex selection ...
Added: July 30, 2026
Piontkovski D., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
A noncommutative projective variety is defined, following Artin and Zhang, by a graded coherent algebra 𝐴. The category of coherent sheaves is then the quotient qgr(𝐴) of the category of finitely presented graded modules by the subcategory of torsion modules. We consider the categorical and polynomial entropies of the Serre twist, that is, of the ...
Added: June 23, 2026
Piontkovski D., / Series arXiv "math". 2025.
If a symmetric multilinear algebra is weakly nil, then it is Engel. This result may be regarded as an infinite-dimensional analogue of the well-known Jacobian theorem, which states that if a polynomial mapping has a polynomial inverse, then its Jacobian matrix is invertible. This refines a theorem of Gerstenhaber and partially answers a question posed ...
Added: June 23, 2026
Shipilov F., Barnyakov A., Ivanov A. et al., / Series Physics "arxiv.org". 2026.
A fast simulation of the detector response is a vital task in high-energy physics (HEP). Traditional Monte-Carlo methods form the backbone of modern particle physics simulation software but are computationally expensive. We present a machine-learning-based approach to fast simulation of the Focusing Aerogel Ring Imaging Cherenkov (FARICH) detector response. Given a particle track and momentum, ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Karacharovskiy V., Ларина У. С., Резмерица А. А., Социологические исследования 2026 № 7 С. 60–75
Based on the neural network approach, the decomposition of the index of social mood in Russia for the period 2004-2024 was carried out and their dynamics for this period was modeled. The following issues are discussed: (a) the nature of the social mood' shocks in Russia, based on their connection with the concepts of politics ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Derkacheva A., Sakirkina M., Kraev G. et al., /. 2026.
Comprehensive data on natural hazards and their consequences are crucial for effective for risk assessment, adaptation planning, and emergency response. However, many countries face challenges with fragmented, inconsistent, and inaccessible data, particularly regarding local-scale events. To address this data gap in Russia, we developed an end-to-end processing pipeline that scrapes news from various online sources, ...
Added: April 28, 2026
Pilé I., Deng Y., Shchur L., / Series arXiv "math". 2026. No. 2604.10254.
We investigate the spatial overlap of successive spin configurations in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations using the local Metropolis algorithm and the Svendsen-Wang and Wolff cluster algorithms. We examine the dynamics of these algorithms for two models in different universality classes: the Ising model and the Potts model with three components. The overlap of two ...
Added: April 20, 2026
Gabdullin N., Androsov I., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2026.
Label prediction in neural networks (NNs) has O(n) complexity proportional to the number of classes. This holds true for classification using fully connected layers and cosine similarity with some set of class prototypes. In this paper we show that if NN latent space (LS) geometry is known and possesses specific properties, label prediction complexity can ...
Added: April 2, 2026
Троцкая И. А., Львова О. А., Короткова Е. В. et al., В кн.: Медицинское образование, наука, практика : Сборник статей X Международной научно-практической конференции молодых ученых и студентов, 22-23 апреля 2025 г. Т.2.: Екатеринбург: ФГБОУ ВО УГМУ Минздрава России, 2025. С. 673–679.
Pediatric ischemic stroke is considered to be a rare condition. Correct recognition of the acute symptoms
and further monitoring of the dynamics of them may allow predicting the child's development and further adaptation. The aim of the study was to provide clinical and imaging features of the acute period of ischemic stroke with debut at an ...
Added: March 2, 2026
Карелина М. Г., Mkhitarian V., Финансы и бизнес 2025 Т. 21 № 4 С. 49–65
Дизельное топливо играет важную роль в российской экономике, его значимость обусловлена высокой эффективностью, экономичностью, надежностью и широким спектром применения. Россия один из крупнейших вмире экспортеров дизельного топлива, что обеспечивает значительные поступления в бюджет страны и является геополитическим инструментом в рамках глобальных трансформационных процессов. Статистическая оценка развития российского рынка дизельного топлива в представленной работе проводилась в ...
Added: February 20, 2026
Sorokin K., Beketov M., Онучин А. et al., / arxiv.org. Серия cs.SI "Social and Information Networks ". 2025.
Community detection in complex networks is a fundamental problem, open to new approaches in various scientific settings. We introduce a novel community detection method, based on Ricci flow on graphs. Our technique iteratively updates edge weights (their metric lengths) according to their (combinatorial) Foster version of Ricci curvature computed from effective resistance distance between the ...
Added: January 15, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Демографическое обозрение 2025 Т. 12 № 4 С. 100–122
Formal demographic analysis, including the construction of life tables, standardization of indicators, decomposition of changes, and modeling of demographic processes, requires complex calculations and data manipulation. Despite the advances in methods, many of them have not yet been implemented as ready-to-use, convenient tools in modern statistical environments. To address this issue, we present the demor ...
Added: December 30, 2025
Petrovanov I., Sergeev A., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2025. No. 2512.18332.
Transport coding reduces message delay in packet-switched networks by introducing controlled redundancy at the transport layer: original packets are encoded into coded packets, and the message is reconstructed after the first successful deliveries, effectively shifting latency from the maximum packet delay to the -th order statistic. We present a concise, reproducible discrete-event implementation of transport coding in OMNeT++, including ...
Added: December 24, 2025
Kopnova E., Журавлева К. А., Коряков И. В. et al., Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. Экономика 2025 № 1 С. 36–46
he article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modeling methods to evaluate the forecast of ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Hessian-based lightweight neural network for brain vessel segmentation on a minimal training dataset
Меньшиков И. А., Бернадотт А. К., Elvimov N. S., / Series arXie "Statistical mechanics". 2025.
Accurate segmentation of blood vessels in brain magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) is essential for successful surgical procedures, such as aneurysm repair or bypass surgery. Currently, annotation is primarily performed through manual segmentation or classical methods, such as the Frangi filter, which often lack sufficient accuracy. Neural networks have emerged as powerful tools for medical image ...
Added: December 1, 2025
Пермь: Пермский государственный национальный исследовательский университет, 2024.
This collection presents the proceedings of the Ninth All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference with International Participation, "Artificial Intelligence in Solving Current Social and Economic Problems of the 21st Century," which was held October 17–18, 2024, in Perm. The collection is intended for researchers and educators, lecturers, postgraduate and master's students, undergraduates, and anyone interested in ...
Added: November 19, 2025
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing (ICIEAM).: IEEE, 2025. P. 987–991.
Industry 4.0 concept focuses on sustainability problem that requires to control air emissions, especially for harmful substances like H2S, and reduction their impact on nature by using environmental monitoring and sources identification systems. This task requires solving inverse problem of dispersion models, which should establish complex mathematical dependences between the sensor data, the location and ...
Added: November 4, 2025
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 10 С. 131–154
The paper summarizes machine-learning (ML) methods most relevant to macroeconomics and assesses their performance in forecasting and nowcasting key macro indicators. Despite rapid methodological progress and a surge of publications over the past 25 years, gains in forecast accuracy with traditional statistical (economic, financial, and survey) data remain modest. ML models often outperform naïve and ...
Added: October 12, 2025
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Russian Automation Conference (RusAutoCon).: IEEE, 2025. P. 1046–1050.
This paper presents system architecture of the automated AI-driven predictive assessment of the ecological state of the air in sanitary protection zones around industrial facilities. The developed solution implements automated pre-processing of data presented in the form of time series using machine learning methods and the construction of short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations for the ...
Added: October 6, 2025
Чан Ф. Т., Староверова О. В., Kosov M., Аудиторские ведомости 2025 № 2 С. 129–134
This article is devoted to the study of factors affecting enterprise cash flow management. Methods of analysis and synthesis of peer-reviewed scientific sources on this issue are applied. As a result of the research, two groups of factors have been identified and systematized: objective factors (state economic policy, customer influence) and subjective factors (competence of ...
Added: September 22, 2025
Karacharovskiy V., Социологические исследования 2025 № 6 С. 3–14
The article evaluates the possibility of forecasting mass social attitudes based on the interest of the population for the eras in the development of the country. Historical eras and their symbols are considered as comparison standards, temporal analogues of reference groups that provide the mass consciousness with samples of “reserve” standards of living and standards ...
Added: August 12, 2025