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Дискретное вейвлет-преобразование в анализе деловых циклов и идентификации поворотных точек
Вопросы статистики. 2026. Т. 33. № 2. С. 23–39.
Lola I. S., Asoskov D.
The paper proposes a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method and its modifications that expand existing approaches in analyzing business cycles and identification of turning points as well as practice of their application. The purpose of the work is to test DWT method and assess the effectiveness of its implementation in applied analysis, aimed at developing the indicator approach; as well as at identification of he business cycle turning points. The empirical basis of the study was the results of surveys of business activity by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), which included estimates of about 25,000 respondents in the main basic sectors of the Russian economy in 2013–2024.
As a result of applying a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) with the LA8 Daubechies filter, we are developing a new composite indicator – the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for the first time in Russian statistical practice. The constructed index is used to identify turning points of the business cycle.
The results of the study show a predominantly synchronous relationship between short-term growth cycles in the BCI time series and the reference index of physical volume of GDP. It shows a high degree of relevance of the method for constructing nonparametric composite indicators. The proposed approach made it possible to identify 8 turning points in the BCI dynamics from 2017 to 2024. However, the deviations of these points from the peaks and troughs identified in the dynamics of the GDP index of physical volume are no more than one quarter.
After testing over 30 wavelet filters, we selected the bior2.2 filter as the best for turning point identification.
Fedorova E., Ledyaeva S., Stepanov V., International Review of Economics and Finance 2026
This study investigates the influence of low-quality information, specifically fake news, on short
term stock returns, contributing to the discourse on signal theory and behavioral economics.
Employing a machine learning approach, the authors developed a robust fake news dataset from
publicly available sources. Sentiment analysis was conducted using a FinBERT model fine-tuned
for stock market contexts, alongside extensive dataset ...
Added: September 12, 2026
Карпова Д. А., Sizova I., Gordin V. E., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 2 С. 10–31
This article examines the musealisation of industrial heritage and its role in regional and corporate branding. The relevance of this study stems from deindustrialisation processes, the growth of industrial tourism, and the need to preserve historical memory, which is particularly important in the context of Russian realities—the lack of a legal definition of the concept ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Veselova L. S., Морозова В. С., Дарчиева А. А., Управленец 2026 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 66–78
На фоне развивающихся торгово-экономических отношений между Россией и Китаем российские десерт- ные бренды получают новые возможности для выхода на китайский рынок. Однако их присутствие ограничено преи- мущественно приграничными регионами, а продвижение сдерживается недостаточной адаптацией к социокультурным особенностям китайских потребителей. Статья посвящена разработке практических рекомендаций по формированию стратегии адаптации российских десертных брендов к специфике китайского рынка. ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Kilinc-Ata N., Warong M. M., SN Business & Economics 2026 Vol. 6 Article 326(2026)
Green transitions are widely expected to attract cleaner capital and accelerate decarbonization; however, emerging-economy evidence increasingly challenges this assumption. This study examines the dynamic relationship between energy transition indicators and capital inflows in BRICS+ economies over the period 1996–2022, explicitly testing the “Green Haven” hypothesis under conditions of global uncertainty. Unlike much of the existing ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Warong M. M., International Journal of Diplomacy and Economy 2026
This study conducted in Indonesia between 2000 and 2023, demonstrates a complex, non-linear interplay between the economic environment and the emergence of clean energy start-ups. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Markov Switching models, the research shows that start-up formation coincides with periods of lower GDP growth, suggesting that innovation is often spurred by necessity. Two ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Кореневский В. В., Экономика и математические методы 2026 Т. 25 № 3 С. 853–878
The US presidential election is a lengthy and complex process, during which candidates present their views and programs for reforming the country's politics and economy, while mass media broadcast these positions to a wide audience. In the most recent election, the topic of cryptocurrencies was used in the campaign for the electorate for the first ...
Added: September 8, 2026
Veselova A., Dikova D., Aray Y., Asia Pacific Journal of Management 2026
We examine board of directors’ gender diversity and corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure of Russian firms, and test for their effects on the market valuation of these firms. The Russian context is unique because gender disparity of boards and top management remains high in Russia due to historical legacy, absence of specific diversity-promoting regulations and ...
Added: September 8, 2026
Mozias P., Социальные и гуманитарные науки. Отечественная и зарубежная литература. Серия 9: Востоковедение и африканистика 2026 № 2 С. 173–208
Abstract. Over the years of market reforms, China has moved from an autarkic economy to the position of the world’s largest trading power, becoming a global leader both in export volume and in total foreign trade turnover. For a long time, China’s export success was commonly explained by her use of comparative advantages in labor-intensive ...
Added: September 7, 2026
Kolesnik N. A., Общество и экономика 2026 № 1-2 С. 114–134
Стремительно растущее население планеты и рост объемов индивидуального потребления при низкой включенности населения в экологические практики признается ключевым
препятствием на пути к экономике замкнутого цикла. В статье анализируется использование
огромного рекламно-коммуникационного потенциала крупных торговых сетей для вовлечения
населения в экономику замкнутого цикла через повышение экологической сознательности и популяризацию ответственного потребления. Эмпирической основой исследования стала база данных коммуникации шести ...
Added: September 6, 2026
Boltachev M., Ymer 2026 Vol. 25 No. 8 P. 130–161
The field of business model adaptation (BMA) remains conceptually fragmented: definitions, antecedents, and typological patterns are scattered across isolated empirical studies, precluding cumulative theory-building. This systematic review aims to synthesise the existing literature on BMA by mapping how the construct is defined, what drives it, and what typological patterns can be identified. Following the SPAR-4-SLR ...
Added: September 4, 2026
Churakova I., Кумар В., Dianli Xitong Baohu yu Kongzhi/Power System Protection and Control 2026 No. 54 (3) P. 428–454
Purpose
This study examines the impact of Predictive Intelligence (PI) and Real-Time Data Insights (RDI) on Corporate Financial Sustainability (CFS), while controlling for organizational factors, industry factors, and AI-related risk factors. The research aims to determine whether these analytic capabilities (PI and RDI) individually and jointly contribute to long-term financial resilience and performance in modern organizations.
Theoretical ...
Added: September 4, 2026
Elyashevich I., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика 2026 Т. 61 № 3 С. 363–384
The study examined the properties of the normal distribution of the values of shipments of stocks of various categories from warehouses of large industrial companies. As a result, it was revealed that the use of the classical normal distribution, in some cases, may give incorrect results, since the values of stock shipments are positive values, ...
Added: September 3, 2026
Методы оценки структурных изменений в векторных и матричных агрегатах макроэкономических показателей
Lesnykh M., Motorin V., Тенденции экономического развития в XXI веке: Материалы VIІІ Международной научно-практической конференции, Республик Беларусь 2026 P. 233–236
The paper deals with comparative analysis of various methods for measuring and studying dynamics of structural macroeconomic indicators that reflect the peculiarities in a movement of multi-component macroeconomic systems. The metric, trigonometric and angular measures of structural changes are considered within vector formalism. Intertemporal orthogonal decomposition of a vector aggregate into the sum of quantity ...
Added: September 3, 2026
Zaruckiy M., Motorin V., Тенденции экономического развития в XXI веке: Материалы VIІІ Международной научно-практической конференции 2026 P. 237–240
The paper is devoted to developing the complex of input–output models for evaluating a potential receptivity of an economy to import substitution in final use and intermediate consumption ...
Added: September 3, 2026
Grigoryev L. M., Современная мировая экономика 2024 Т. 2 № 1 С. 23–44
In 2024, a series of reports from international and private research institutions offered a cautious and rational analysis of the global economic situation. The complicated economic growth of 2011-2019 was followed by the turmoil of 2020-2023. In the midst of geopolitical conflicts, the global economy has entered a phase of uneven recovery. The current situation ...
Added: March 22, 2026
Skorobogatov A., Вопросы экономики 2024 № 8 С. 28–49
Paper discusses the “Minsky’s paradox”, which states that the effect of anticyclical policy should weaken from one cycle to another, meaning that, to soften or postpone a crisis, a government will have to use stronger tools. To illustrate this regularity, we analyze the American data on interest rate and stock index over 59 years. The ...
Added: August 14, 2024
Smirnov S. V., Олейник Е. Б., Коваленко С. С., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 10 С. 75–97
In recent decades, predicting turning points of economic cycles (their peaks and troughs) using leading indicators has established itself as a fairly simple, clear and at the same time reliable method. But the world experience has shown that any system of leading indicators requires revision and clarification from time to time. The recent non-economic shocks ...
Added: October 25, 2023
Grigoryev L. M., Ёлкина З. С., Медникова П. А. et al., Вопросы экономики 2021 № 10 С. 27–50
Пандемия COVID-19 вынудила правительства практически всех стран ввести в 2020 году локдауны, что резко сократило предложение в ряде крупных секторов услуг: транспорт, рекреация, общественное питание, туризм. Рецессия началась без кризиса, а уникальное по масштабам предложение дешевых денег и фискальных стимулов предотвратило развитие «сжатия ликвидности». Напротив, оно привело к росту курсов акций, цен на недвижимость, сокращению ...
Added: September 20, 2021
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 4 С. 53–65
The article provides a brief overview of the background of constructing composite leading indicators (CLI) for Russia; the paper defines key indicators which currently are calculated and published monthly; they can be put in practice to monitor the Russian economy. The underlying methodological approaches are analyzed, along with their advantages and disadvantages. The importance of ...
Added: August 25, 2020
Grigoryev L. M., Pavlyushina V., Музыченко Е. Э., Вопросы экономики 2020 № 5 С. 5–24
All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence ...
Added: May 13, 2020
Podrugina A., Мир новой экономики 2018 Т. 12 № 3 С. 68–81
Кредитный цикл – это один из важнейших элементов делового цикла. Кредитная экспансия после кризиса представляет собой один из ключевых путей восстановления экономики. Ужесточение финансового регулирования, проведенное в ответ на кризис 2007–2008 гг., в значительной степени затормозило фазу кредитной экспансии и отразилось в аномально затянувшейся фазе кредитного сжатия для нефинансового частного сектора. Нормальное течение кредитного цикла ...
Added: August 30, 2018
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2015 Т. 19 № 4 С. 534–553
At first, we discuss whether the concept of economic cycles is at all applicable to the realities of the Russian economy. As for several subperiods during the last 35 years, it has been not only market but planned and transformed also, this issue is arguable. But in our opinion, all mid-term factors of total economic ...
Added: November 6, 2015
Pestova A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 94/EC/2015.
In this paper, I develop the leading indicators of the business cycle turning points exploiting the quarterly panel dataset comprising OECD countries and Russia over the 1980-2013 period. Contrasting to the previous studies, I combine data on OECD countries and Russia into a single dataset and develop universal models suitable for the entire sample with ...
Added: May 5, 2015