Investigating the Evolution of the Logic of Industry-specific Trade Sanctions against Russia, 2022–2024

Eurasian Geography and Economics. 2026. Vol. 67. No. 7. P. 874–887.

Golovanova S., Agamirova M.

By exploiting the natural experiment of post-2022 sanctions against Russia, our study contributes to the sanctions literature by offering an empirical analysis of the determinants of the imposition of industry-specific trade sanctions from a cost-benefit point of view. We developed a specialized indicator designed to measure the intensity of trade sanctions, imposed by the EU and the USA against Russia in 2022-2024, as a share of 2021 trade that would be affected by corresponding trade bans, by 2-digit HS product groups. Using econometric techniques, we show that the sanctioning countries strategically focus on restricting trade flows so that to exert maximum economic pressure on the Russian economy, including effects along value chains. This is consistent with the point of view that the probability of sanctions’ success increases with economic harm to the target economy.  At the same time, we get no empirical evidence in favor of the deterrent effect of sanctions’ cost. The sanctioning countries do not impose less intensive restrictions on the trade flows that are economically important to their economies, which seems to indicate the firmness of their intentions.

Keywords: Россия, Russia, торговые ограничения, trade restrictions, intensity of sanctions, интенсивность санкций

Publication based on the results of: Restructuring of the Russian Companies, Industries and Markets in Response to New Global Challenges (2025)