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Оценка влияния экспортных и импортных санкций на российскую экономику с использованием таблиц «затраты—выпуск»
The Russian economy continues to operate under the conditions of sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed since February 2022. The observed sanctions impact is significantly weaker than initially anticipated. This article analyzes the effect of trade sanctions on the Russian economy using input-output tables, which allow for the inclusion of inter-industry linkages in the analysis, combined with econometric tools. The analysis separately examines export and import sanctions.
According to the calculation of the impact of export sanctions on budget indicators, in 2023 due to the sanctions the oil-related portion of oil and gas revenues is reduced by 18%, or approximately 1.5 trillion rubles. All else being equal, revenues from the main types of non-oil and gas taxes in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation decrease by 443 billion rubles.
The input-output approach to calculate the impact of the sanctions that restrict intermediate goods imports is expanded by including econometric approximations of output changes in response to the reduction of imported intermediate inputs. The expanded approach provides more moderate and thus more realistic results; for example, the output in the industry “Transport equipment” decreases by 3.45%, 4.22%, and 4.5% when intermediate imports in the categories of "Electrical and Optical Equipment," "Machinery," and "Transport Equipment" are reduced by 10%, respectively. According to the logic of the input-output model, the output will decrease by the amount corresponding to the maximum impact of import reduction on output – which is 4.5% in our example.
Additionally, the article considers a potential approach to estimate the impact of sanctions that restrict the imports of final goods from the perspective of potential import substitution. According to the calculations made for the industry “Transport equipment”, assuming full import substitution, the total volume of intermediate imports in the economy increases by approximately 1% (79 billion rubles based on 2016 prices and exchange rates).
Calculations based on the input-output model allow for the assessment of the impact of sanctions "all else being equal," meaning in a hypothetical scenario where businesses and the government do not attempt to adapt to the new conditions. In reality, this is not the case. For instance, budget constraints arising from export sanctions and the accompanying reduction in government demand are overcome through borrowing and the use of resources from the National Wealth Fund. Import restrictions are largely mitigated through the reorganization of businesses, changes in the country structure of imports, and adjustments in the production structure within broader product categories.