Как транспорт на альтернативном топливе трансформирует рынки цветных металлов: сценарный подход

Форсайт. 2025. Т. 19. № 2. С. 28–41.

Makarov I. A., Баранов Г. Ю., Chistikov M.

Technological advances, growing concern about climate change, and the adoption of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by numerous countries have all contributed to a significant growth in the global demand for alternative fuel vehicles over the last decade. Electric vehicles, battery-powered ones (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid (PHEVs) alike, offer the most promising alternative to conventional hydrocarbon-powered vehicles. In some regions of the world electric vehicles are very likely to dominate the market as early as in the 2030s. However, compared to internal combustion vehicles, the production of electric ones requires a wider range of non-ferrous metals, which may become a bottleneck for the further electrification of transport. This paper presents a scenario analysis of possible electric vehicle market growth trajectories, with an assessment of key metal requirements for each proposed scenario. The results show that between now and 2050, the increased rate of electric vehicles’ adoption will significantly affect the cobalt market, and moderately impact the lithium, nickel and copper markets, while the effect on the manganese and aluminium markets will remain minor. Our results suggest that the increased adoption of electric vehicles in the coming decades opens significant opportunities for non-ferrous metal-producing countries (including Russia) to increase supplies to global markets.

Keywords: электромобили, альтернативные топлива, Electric vehicles, alternative fuels, полностью электрические автомобили, рынок цветных металлов, Battery electric vehicle, Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicle, non-ferrous metal market, подзаряжаемые гибридные автомобили

Publication based on the results of: Inequalities in greenhouse gas emissions at the global and national levels: implications for approaches to combating climate change (2024)